Looking for a short that wont go up as the S&P recovers?

29 มี.ค. 2016

KODK is circling the drain. Their balance sheet and quarterly income is very unimpressive; they don't look like the books of a company on a rebound but rather a company winding down operations. Q4 2014 they had 260m~ assets over liabilities, that number is down to a scant 75m~. During the same period, cost of revenue is down about 17% vs revenue being down 'only' 13% but that's not terribly impressive.
Don't get me wrong, I like film cameras. Working in a dark room to print your own photos is great. But it is a niche market that doesn't match up with Kodak's half billion market cap (they don't even make cameras mind you!) The film market is dominated by Polaroid, toy cameras, and pre-owned sales. Film and paper are not a monopoly for Kodak in the 21st century with Fuji, Ilford and others long pushing Kodak out of frame.
This chart shows Kodak's next slide. The 1 day MACD is already breaking negative and the chart below is the 3-day MACD showing that the leveling/upturn from the start of this year is over. Kodak may as well have agreed to sell their wares exclusively at Radioshack. Much of what their current business is (business services etc) doesn't have the same economies of scale that Xerox and others have. They could have held some patents and licensed the remainder to get some revenue streams but it's too late now. Maybe Kodak is already "winding down" and doesn't want to acknowledge it publicly. They don't have to wind down to zero; they can still be a single factory film manufacturer, making a tidy profit for a few dozen employees. But a half billion dollar multinational? Sorry, but that image is fading fast.

Bottom line:
Buy put options for as far out as possible and sit on them---Take a higher strike price (>$8) if you are looking for a cheap bet, low strike price if you are looking for a super cheap bet.