IT10y-US10y yield spread looking to another leg higher

22 ก.ค. 2018

Very pretty triangle forming in potential B wave suggests attempts for another leg higher in coming weeks to break up to +50bps+
Need confirmation first (staying above tri support) then breakout.

2 ส.ค. 2018

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On the move. Should be dynamic. IT yields headed a lot higher and will drag spread along for the ride. Risk off environment.

10 ส.ค. 2018

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Stick with the plan. Recommended trade at negative 35bps, now spread flat(ish) and still looks to be headed a lot higher (plus 30-50bps) as we could be entering risk off mode and flight to UST (quite apart from impact on EZ bonds from Turkey fallout).

17 ส.ค. 2018

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Spread now +30bps (having widened from -35bps when recommended initially). Still think there is more room on upside to +50bps or higher in risk off environment.

30 ส.ค. 2018

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Spread now +35bps and still has a lot more upside imo (maybe another 100bps to 135bps!!