Trend-lines mid-target box & Oil will rise

26 พ.ย. 2014

Trend-lines of support & resistance

3 sets of converging trend-lines for 3 possible future prices: 148 High, 128 Mid, 58 Low
If oil demand rises (which seems likely because of global conflicts), a logical target price lies within 118
(long term trend-line support) to 136p (Austin's buy price).
The Saudis said they could hold on for a year before cutting production, so the 136p lies in October 2015.
The Mid trend lines converge in june at ~128.
Converging trend-lines from old (2008 to 2013) resistance and support point toward 58 in November 2015
Converging trend-lines from recent (since jan 2013) resistance and support point toward 148 in April 2015

Target: Anything from 118 to 136 (if oil price rises)

- Notice that I've added some oil futures for comparison.

Why crude oil will rise:

1. China's hoarding strategy due to global conflicts & perceived US threat to it's sovereignty.
2. Russia, Saudi Arabia & OPEC can't afford cheap oil due to trade deficits & debt.
3. Indian demand due to "100 smart cities" construction program

Russia's economy is poorly, so they're desperate to sell unprofitable oil company stakes to China.
businessinsider.com.au/russia-china-oil-and-debt-deal-2014-11

China is aiming for a 500m bbl oil reserve (just in case) , so they there will be sustained demand.
nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/us-china-war-asia-could-america-win-by-blockade-11733

Record 21m bbl purchased by one Chinese oil trader in October
bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-28/chinese-oil-trader-buys-record-number-of-mideast-cargoes.html

16m bbl capacity storage base in Hainan just opened:
reuters.com/article/2014/11/25/sinopec-crude-storage-idUSL3N0TF29F20141125

4.57m bbl extra processing capacity in development by 2022
IEA forecast: 11.1m bbl/day China consumption for 2014 Q4
eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=CH

Desperate Russia considers lowering output to drive up crude:
bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-24/russia-reported-to-consider-joining-opec-oil-output-cuts-in-2015.html

Saudi deficit may decide production cut timetable:
muftah.org/dictators-in-debt-saudi-arabias-pending-deficit/

India is importing nearly 80% of its crude oil consumption:
computer.financialexpress.com/egov-watch/powering-indias-smart-cities/


93.55m bbl/day world consumption in 2014 Q4
93.62m bbl/day world production in 2014 Q3
94.2 bbl/day in October
92.4m av bbl/day world consumption 2014 Q1-Q4

94.22m bbl/day world consumption expected in 2015 Q3
94.69m bbl/day world consumption expected in 2015 Q4
iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/