Welltower a decent long gamble coming up

10 ก.พ. 2017

I've been tracking HCN for long term ownership and farming. The fundamentals are well covered and it's a Wall St. darling for cash flow along with O and a handful of others. So I don't expect any funny business with the accounting is all.

From the 2016 lows I count a Leading Diagonal (not shown in chart) for wave 1 (wave 5 of 1 is shown on chart)
Then an ABC throwback with wave C as an Ending Diagonal.
The milestones fit the pattern as do the price overlaps.
2 back2back Expanded Flats in Yellow boxes.

I know wave 5 of an Ending Diag should be 3 waves, so it appears we have 2 more bear moves in proportion to go down.
There's a Fib expansion cluster at 64.25 that is my candidate for support.
And there's the Blue descending trendline as well that coincides with the Fib cluster.

If there's divergence on the oscillator I think it's a good trade.
I'm dead wrong with a close below say, 63.50.
Target is way north of 70, into the 90's - just can't show it on the chart.

This would be the 1st throwback since a major low, with the first rally as a Leading Diag.
So a wave 3 up may be straight ahead.

14 ก.พ. 2017

บันทึกช่วยจำ

The Wave C didn't decline into 64.25. Instead we got an Ending Diagonal looking wave with 3 motive waves matching in degree.
The highs yesterday tested the upper channel line.
The great news is that this market is seeking swing balance with the Jan 2017 decline.
So should be a strong move down into 63.50 or again 64.20 area to match the A leg down from Jan.
That will balance out this entire structure.
The a rally move back into that substantial TPO sideways Value area created since late Jan may then be in store. POC is around 66.23.