11/12/24 - $goos - Probs a buy but i need <$8

5 วันที่ผ่านมา

11/12/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: GOOS
Probs a buy but i need <$8

- love the product
- discretionary and let's be real here... luxury (these things r not cheap)... is getting crushed. ELF > EL couldn't be more stark.
- capital stack has debt ugh. 500 mm on 1 bn cap. basically that shouldn't matter but a. rates high and w/ uncertainty if go higher are a -ve factor for stonk period and b. multiple is much higher vs. surface glance.
- so instead of say a $9 stock price we have $14. (50% more per the debt in capital stack... 1.5 bn EV / 1.0 bn m cap = $9 stonk * 1.5 = $14). point is EPS of 70c next year puts this at nearly a 20x PE. and here i am struggling to justify buying more YETI (i don't it's about a 2.5% position for me rn), at 15x PE! and i don't have the growth overhangs, it's got a product portfolio that spans the price ladder a bit better, a bit more discretionary vs. luxury (in the case of GOOS).
- the point being... this is an excellent brand if someone wants to scoop it into their portfolio at maybe $2 bn (pay the premium to take it out!). they generate probably $150 to $200 mm in FCF in any other environment and ez-pz. but it's just too rough to sit in stonks and *hope* nevermind *hope someone buys your bag*. that's stupid thinking and you won't make good $ and you'll tie up capital and become frustrated each day it doesn't happen even though thinking it will happen today/ tmr/ next week... is stupid thinking.
- SO. what do we do with this thing? heading into tax loss sell off season and where risk markets are ripping and this thing is on it's back? we wait. if risk sells off this gets dumped first. if/when risk comes back, this probably gets bought last.
- unless something changes, if it just starts to work from here... cool. i missed it. i miss a lot of things. but my risk parameters have me buying this minimally $8 and probably getting more active in the 7s. tgt set at $8 to take another look if/when. perhaps there will be a place i'd just prefer to buy more YETI anyway. let's see.

thoughts?

V