These Charts tell a story of a "Pandemic" Market
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Where is the money coming from? I think,
The market rally is backed by FEDs and their enormous pocket (printing press). Showing who is in control.
1. Money is flooding into markets Equity, Bonds, Commodity. It is not traders or market makers money in the equity. Its the FED press money.
1a. Commodity is where risk averse and foreign money is heading for safe haven (will stop soon possibly by this month).
2. Job numbers that came out are unequivocally better, but this steep rise is unprecedented. (Thanks to PPP loans, and Happy to see most returning to work - Will it last?).
3. This orchestration of markets conducted by FEDs with Govt Support will cave in. When the music stops, the sell off starts. Possibly before the end of July.
4. I am not blaming FEDs for the rally, Only pointing out the desperation behind their action to inflate (INFLATE) the economy. [YES, Inflating].
4a. The cost of the inflation will hit us in the next 2-3 years. If your gas and groceries cost (100%) more, do not be surprised. But remember, why!.
4b. Not blaming because, if they do not support the market now, the inflation will hit right away and a possible collapse of Global Economic Recession (worst than now) will start.
5. Not just FEDs, all around the world this is happening. (FIAT Money).
If What I am speculating above is happenning.
*** The upcoming FED announcement will not change the market direction*** Infact will make the market rally higher, as they would add more confidence. May be a new high (this month on ES1! SPX SPY) for our president to cheer up.
Main Street and Wall Street seems like they are on different planet. The space is growing and growing, now it just got accelarated.
For traders, one take away. Drop all your naked position basing strategies for 2 weeks+. HEDGE and HEDGE based strategies to keep your recent and past gains taken away from this market.
This artificially inflated market will find its home soon. Please do not be led to the trap. I recommend to trade with sizes that you can afford. If you have a large position, Weigh it against the (SPY, IWM, QQQ, GLD, TLT) and hedge accordingly. Hedge too much can cost you as well, Hedging little would erase your gains. So be mindful.
If you are not in a long term position, Not the time to load in the market. Or Commodities
Commodities may rally a little higher. If the FEDs support the market, the commodity will go lower (Investors love their Dividends). So HEDGE your long or short, regardless.
EASY MARKET IS GONE FOR THIS MONTH. Now the real test for traders start.
NEXT MONTH, will update what I think. Soon the storm is over, will publish my picks again. Until then there are plenty of opportunities in the Market and Market derivatives for a lota greens $$$$....
Till then - Gear Down and Hold.
The market rally is backed by FEDs and their enormous pocket (printing press). Showing who is in control.
1. Money is flooding into markets Equity, Bonds, Commodity. It is not traders or market makers money in the equity. Its the FED press money.
1a. Commodity is where risk averse and foreign money is heading for safe haven (will stop soon possibly by this month).
2. Job numbers that came out are unequivocally better, but this steep rise is unprecedented. (Thanks to PPP loans, and Happy to see most returning to work - Will it last?).
3. This orchestration of markets conducted by FEDs with Govt Support will cave in. When the music stops, the sell off starts. Possibly before the end of July.
4. I am not blaming FEDs for the rally, Only pointing out the desperation behind their action to inflate (INFLATE) the economy. [YES, Inflating].
4a. The cost of the inflation will hit us in the next 2-3 years. If your gas and groceries cost (100%) more, do not be surprised. But remember, why!.
4b. Not blaming because, if they do not support the market now, the inflation will hit right away and a possible collapse of Global Economic Recession (worst than now) will start.
5. Not just FEDs, all around the world this is happening. (FIAT Money).
If What I am speculating above is happenning.
*** The upcoming FED announcement will not change the market direction*** Infact will make the market rally higher, as they would add more confidence. May be a new high (this month on ES1! SPX SPY) for our president to cheer up.
Main Street and Wall Street seems like they are on different planet. The space is growing and growing, now it just got accelarated.
For traders, one take away. Drop all your naked position basing strategies for 2 weeks+. HEDGE and HEDGE based strategies to keep your recent and past gains taken away from this market.
This artificially inflated market will find its home soon. Please do not be led to the trap. I recommend to trade with sizes that you can afford. If you have a large position, Weigh it against the (SPY, IWM, QQQ, GLD, TLT) and hedge accordingly. Hedge too much can cost you as well, Hedging little would erase your gains. So be mindful.
If you are not in a long term position, Not the time to load in the market. Or Commodities
Commodities may rally a little higher. If the FEDs support the market, the commodity will go lower (Investors love their Dividends). So HEDGE your long or short, regardless.
EASY MARKET IS GONE FOR THIS MONTH. Now the real test for traders start.
NEXT MONTH, will update what I think. Soon the storm is over, will publish my picks again. Until then there are plenty of opportunities in the Market and Market derivatives for a lota greens $$$$....
Till then - Gear Down and Hold.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
There was a period in 2013. Cannot pin point, where buying any stock made money.บันทึกช่วยจำ
Ok Guys, I am picking up a heavy hedged SDS Long options trade. Tradtional Option Strategies are not going to make money here. The non standard innovative ones can still hold your head above the water. Traditional BS will eat you alive. as these products are traded to trap people.
Traditional Premium purchase will still eat you, as the Vol is already high. And these double decker derivatives will not help.
But you can do the same on gentle products like SPY as well. A BS or Iron Fly (BUY premium) on it would suffice.
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I will be doing some webinars / stream here at TV in August about Leveraged ETF and the opportunity it presents. Details and Agenda will be available soon. Need to prepare material and also build a New PC to handle all that.
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Corelation alert - ZB is extremely co-related to market. A tad bit weaker.บันทึกช่วยจำ
Intraday*บันทึกช่วยจำ
The entire market is waiting for tomorrow morning. JEEXบันทึกช่วยจำ
Amazed how RTY1! is holding up Intraday. The sell of is lead by Oil Financials and Techs. The three Largest market cap. For the market to get lower, RTY absolutely has to breakdown. PERIOD.
RTY - RUSSELL 2000
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The RIP on RTY this morning is promising. But the Chart Pattern is not ripe yet to take large bullish positions. Watch carefully
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The probability for a sizable pullback is getting higher. Will be looking for a potential shorting opportunity for a quick flip overnight or 2 Nights.บันทึกช่วยจำ
Too Many Bears in the Market -บันทึกช่วยจำ
I dont see a second leg down. If it has to happen, the Important support levels shown need to be broken. 1 Blue line and 2 Purple Lines.
That would hurt. So, Staying bullish until then. GOOD LUCK.
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Ofcourse, I try hard to maintain a neutral portfolio. With my net risk currently 4% in the overall market. That is done mostly with various position. The way I have it setup now is. If Market takes out the 294 Level, I make money. If the market stays above 307 I am making MULA.
Subjected to change ofcourse, as I enter and close positions.
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I am expecting ZB to sell off a little bit, If it where to run, it was today. Since it managed to go down. I back off from buying into this for now. But obvsly, you can buy BS or IC here, expecting a breakout or leg out as you see fit. Too much time required for me to consider it right here.
Uday C Santhakumar
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