Gold 2 short-term bull scenarios vs 1 med - long term bear

In a previous post on the 4th of August I put the end of wave 5 at $1171 and it made $1167 so that is pretty close. It just goes to show that there is a big difference between creating a good technical analysis and being able to trade it successfully :)

Anyway, I am looking to see what develops now as I believe the 5 waves down have completed. Possible scenarios in the near-term:

BEAR: Because I am a bear medium-term on gold I expect to see relatively strong abc correction upwards - maybe approaching the lower trend-line (in the mid to high 1200s) before wave C down of the larger ABC (if which the recent move from $1369 to $1167 was wave A). If this happens I may jump into wave c up. If the abc correction does not break above $1369 I will call this wave 2 - wave 1 being the $1369 to $1167 price decline with a sub-$600 target. Yes I am making that (conditional) call.

BULL: Or gold could start an impulse wave upwards and go on a huge bull-run (in which case I will jump in for wave 3 up and try to to close the trade too early). This is more likely if something major happens in the world economy or USD weakens considerably (both of which are very plausible scenarios at the moment) and everyone rushes to the safety of physical gold. Saying that, in some respects I feel that to be bullish on gold you need to be generally bearish about the world economy.

Either way I am bullish on gold short-term. This is based almost entirely on technical analysis. In a previous post I am pointing to silver rather than gold as being a more attractive investment to hold in physical form (including as a vehicle to accumulate more gold). I was quite surprised over the past few weeks in just how closely silver and sold were trading in lock-step with each other. This may continue for a while but silver is much closer to going on a bull run as compared to gold. Watch GOLDSILVER for an appreciation of silver vs gold. I didn't expect to be talking about silver so much in this gold analysis so apologies. I am currently not in a trade on either metal and do not own any physical precious metals so am not trying to sway anyone - I am just someone trying to learn who is independent and not trying to influence the market. Hopefully, my results are starting to speak for themselves.

Good luck everyone and thanks for viewing