SELL GBP at Market for a MASSIVE move south (now 1.2888)

7 มิ.ย. 2017

If there wasn't a General election in the Uk tomorrow. SELLING the GBP/USD from a technical standpoint looks a no-brainer.
With price spiking through the 200 sma on the H4 time frame and this move being strongly rejected and the current candle opening below the 200 and moving south, this looks a solid SELL with a STOP at 1.2955 above the 200sma and coincidentally above WR1 resistance.
The stars look aligned on this one and the risk/reward is compelling.
However.
Tomorrow see the UK General Election.
There are 4 realistic eventualities.
A big Tory win.
A small Tory win.
A small Labour win.
A hung Parliament.
A big Tory win will kill all GBP shorts as the GBP will advance strongly.
A small Tory win will hurt the GBP and see prices lower.
A small Labour win will see the GBP plunge.
A hung Parliament will see the GBP go down like the Titanic.
The most likely result seems to be a small Tory win or a hung Parliament.
If the 18 to 24 year olds can be be galvanized to get to the polling stations, they will vote heavily for Corbyn and their vote could be significant.
The risk is clearly to the downside for the GBP.
The danger to this position is news over the next 14 hours or so. The markets will become increasingly ultra sensitive and we could see some unpleasant spikes.
A 60 pip risk looks good value for a trade of huge potential.