Worst week. Christmas. What to expect?

23 ธ.ค. 2019

The pound experienced one of the worst week these years. Johnson and the deadlines greatly spoiled the mood for buyers of the British currency. The ghost of an exit without a deal materialized again. However, its probability is no more than 25% (according to Goldman Sachs analysts), many hastened to take profits from the sharp growth of the pound in the parliamentary elections after net sellers joined them. Also, weak data from the UK was published, as well as a “dovish” tone of comments from the Bank of England. As a result, all this led to the 1.30 test.

No matter how bad was the last week, we see no reasons to panic. On the contrary, the pound is perfectly substituted and this should be used. Johnson's words in no way (in our understanding) cancel the general line, which is the "soft" exit of Great Britain from the EU. On Friday, the new Parliament of Great Britain has already voted for the version of the agreement developed by Johnson. That is, from the point of view of facts, everything speaks in favour of an exit from the transaction. Exit with the deal is the price of the pound against the dollar 1.40 and higher. Besides, Friday's UK GDP data came out better than expected. So feel free to buy the pound in the medium term and on the intraday basis.

Highlights and takeaways from the historic week that Trump was impeached.
We do believe that Trump will “sit in his chair” until the end of his term, but the future fate of the presidency is a question. In general, the Democrats held an excellent rally of black PR. Their coming to power can greatly change not only political but also the economic reality in the United States. But this perspective is still quite far.

We are waiting for Christmas week. Accordingly, an extremely thin market with an increased risk of volatility explosions or even flash crashes.

Our trading plan for this week is extremely aggressive intraday trading based on oscillator signals. We do not expect any strong directional movements and look forward to fluctuations in relatively narrow ranges. Making trading almost risk-free. In our case (thin market), we ensure each position with relatively small stops.

As for the medium-term positions: we buy the pound, the Japanese yen and gold, we sell the Russian ruble.