Trump Impeachment, infernal sanctions, BoE & BoJ

19 ธ.ค. 2019

US President Donald Trump has been impeached by the Democratic-led House of Representatives for obstruction of Congress and abuse of power related to his dealings with Ukraine. The votes made Trump only the third president in United States history to be impeached and set the stage for a likely trial in the Republican-led Senate in January. This event has already been included in current prices and moods in the financial markets. Note, the fate of Trump is in the hands of the Senate, and there are 2/3 of the Republicans, so, Trump is not in danger.

Nevertheless, we cannot but note that our already strong desire to sell the dollar after such news only intensified.

After a volatile market on Tuesday, Wednesday became a respite day. But today there is a possibility of the return of strong movements in pound pairs in the foreign exchange market.

It is about the announcement of the results of the Bank of England. Experts expect the parameters of monetary policy in the country to remain unchanged. In general, this will be in line with the current mood of the leading Central banks in the world, which have taken a break and are following the development of events. So, surprises should be expected only from Mark Carney’s comments.

Our expectations and a trading plan for today. As the pound sales dwindled yesterday. The markets have calmed down. So you can not be afraid of a crazy panic wave, which will be able to absorb our position beneath. Therefore, today we are returning to the idea of buying a pound both on the intraday and in the medium-term positions.

The EU and Johnson’s comments could provoke local outbursts of volatility, and the direction of the price dynamics of the pound will be determined by the nature of information injections. But if you sit and wait for this kind of information, then you can freeze trading activity at all. So do not be afraid of opening the trade - the only restriction taking into account current realities is setting up the stops for each of the trade.

Recall that we believe that the pound’s real value is 500, or even 1000 pips more expensive, which means buying is a promising trading idea.

Among other trading ideas, we note simply excellent points for the sale of the Russian ruble.

The fact is that yesterday the relevant committee of the US Senate approved sanctions against Russia for interfering in the elections. We are talking about the so-called "hellish sanctions." Of course, the bill still needs to be voted on and given to Trump for signature, so it is still a long way from implementation. The fact that the process is in progress cannot but put pressure on the ruble.

That is why its current price is a gift that is simply a sin to refuse from. But in order to make this position more balanced, we recommend using oil purchases as a hedge. Actually, the ruble is growing because of oil growth. Even after the announcement of the OPEC + decision to increase production cuts, we recommend buying oil. So far, the dynamics of the asset fully justify this recommendation, which testifies in favour of our correct understanding of the situation.

The Bank of Japan has already announced its decision. The expected monetary policy parameters remained unchanged. Therefore we purchase the Japanese yen. Low volatility, coupled with the USDJPY near to the top of the medium-term range, makes the deal quite profitable on the other hand with very limited risks. That is, sales of the USDJPY from 109.60 with stops above 109.90 and minimum profits of about 108.50 (or even 107.30) make the deal extremely interesting.