GBPUSD - Can it develop into a bearish surprise? (Watch!)
Looking at Ichimoku components and the trend alone, it is defenately bullish on both time frames. But...!
... But there are few things I don't like:
- Daily MACD triple negative divergence
- Daily Slow Stoch turning down again, with printing slightly lower top on this cross.
- 1,6820-40 resistance held three times.
- 4 Hrs ADX dropped to very low level, sub 15 now!
- 4 Hrs Slow Stoch turning down, with a lower last high
I don't tell you to rush and open shorts, but I think it is time to think about closing longs as minimum!
From current level I expect some minor correction down to 1,6690, or if the correction can get more momentum, then down to 1,6630-1,6650. However if you look at the daily chart, this is nothing really. We could not even call it a real correction, not even a swing in this long lasting bull trend.
What we have to closely watch is rather the daily chart. Which way the price will break out of this tightenning triangle? Looking at DXY, and at different USD crosses in general I have a gut feeling that we may see a surprise in GBPUSD soon, which means a bearish reversal. But to make sure the bull trend is really over, and it really starts a bearish trend (not just a sideaway consolidation), we need to see the followings on the daily chart: Trend line break, Tenkan/Kijun bearish signal, and most importantly by the Price crossing the Kumo (bearish Kumo breakout), which needs to be confirmed by trading below previous low (1,6450), by Chikou crossing below the price candles.
I already bought some Put options. I think given that implied Vol. is very low now, this is the most comfortable and quite cheap way to put some bets on a possible bearish reversal within next 1-2 months.
In case price breaks and stays above 1,6840, that will invalidate this idea and also Puts should be sold at mkt before their maturity.
... But there are few things I don't like:
- Daily MACD triple negative divergence
- Daily Slow Stoch turning down again, with printing slightly lower top on this cross.
- 1,6820-40 resistance held three times.
- 4 Hrs ADX dropped to very low level, sub 15 now!
- 4 Hrs Slow Stoch turning down, with a lower last high
I don't tell you to rush and open shorts, but I think it is time to think about closing longs as minimum!
From current level I expect some minor correction down to 1,6690, or if the correction can get more momentum, then down to 1,6630-1,6650. However if you look at the daily chart, this is nothing really. We could not even call it a real correction, not even a swing in this long lasting bull trend.
What we have to closely watch is rather the daily chart. Which way the price will break out of this tightenning triangle? Looking at DXY, and at different USD crosses in general I have a gut feeling that we may see a surprise in GBPUSD soon, which means a bearish reversal. But to make sure the bull trend is really over, and it really starts a bearish trend (not just a sideaway consolidation), we need to see the followings on the daily chart: Trend line break, Tenkan/Kijun bearish signal, and most importantly by the Price crossing the Kumo (bearish Kumo breakout), which needs to be confirmed by trading below previous low (1,6450), by Chikou crossing below the price candles.
I already bought some Put options. I think given that implied Vol. is very low now, this is the most comfortable and quite cheap way to put some bets on a possible bearish reversal within next 1-2 months.
In case price breaks and stays above 1,6840, that will invalidate this idea and also Puts should be sold at mkt before their maturity.
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