Pound Struggling to lift itself past 1.30

16 ต.ค. 2020

The Pound against the US Dollar is currently one of the most exciting pairs to be keeping an eye on, as it is essentially fighting between a rock and a hard place. Currently ranging just under 1.30, both nations have events coming up that will significantly shift the currency pair in either direction.

In the UK, we have Brexit negotiations affecting the Pound side of the equation. After the 30th of September passed, the UK is trying to buy time due to the worsening of the Coronavirus in Britain. There is pressure mounting onto Prime Minister Boris Johnson to ensure a deal goes through to avoid a compounding economic and human loss that a no-deal Brexit and terrible Coronavirus conditions bring to the UK.

Pound heavily dependent on Brexit results
According to a CNN Business analysis based on Citi and the Institute for Fiscal Studies forecasts, a no-deal Brexit could cost the UK economy $25 billion next year. Laurence Boone, Chief Economist at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, stated that “The Combination of Covid-19 and the exit from the EU single market makes the UK outlook exceptionally uncertain” and that “actions taken to address the pandemic and decisions made on future trading relationships will have a lasting impact on the United Kingdom’s economic trajectory for years to come.”

Pound needs to worry about the US elections
The election is heating up with current polls across the Ditch, showing Biden taking a double-digit lead over Trump, with Joe Biden polling at 54%, and Trump polling at 43%. Biden seems to have the advantage over Black, Latinos, Whites with a college degree, and young voters. Conversely, Trump’s strongest group continues to be White Evangelical Christians, rural voters, and whites without college degrees.

However, for both, the Coronavirus continues to run rampant. Unfortunately, investors and traders assume that America has given up on the Coronavirus and is learning to live with the virus. They can’t get a second wave since they have not finished their first yet. Therefore, a second partial lockdown in the UK in response to the second wave has weighed on the Pound stronger than the US’s long first wave.

As for the pair, a Biden Victoria plus positive Brexit talks should push the Pound higher, and the US dollar strengthens, moving past that strong 1.30 mark. However, a Trump win and further deterioration of Brexit talks should see the Pound weaken, and the US dollar strengthens.