GBPAUD buying on trend continuation and commodities prices

Long points:
1.Trend continuation !!!
2. Structure + Fib levels !!!
3. Good reward/Risk ratio !!
4. Little RSI divergence !
5, Australia Dollar price is highly related to commodity prices which are mainly going down !!!

Negative side:
1. Estimated (not back-tested) probability 49%+/-7%
2. What positive or negative aspects of this trade do you see?