100-SMA tests EURUSD bulls ahead of EU GDP, US CPI

15 พ.ค.

EURUSD rises to the highest level in five weeks, up for the third consecutive day, as traders await the second reading of the Eurozone Q1 GDP and the US headline inflation number, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In doing so, the Euro pair justifies the previous day’s successful clearance of the 200-SMA hurdle, backed by the upside RSI (14) line and the bullish MACD signals. However, the 100-SMA and a downward-sloping resistance line from late December 2023, close to 1.0825 and 1.0835 respectively, challenge the pair buyers. Following that, the quote’s gradual run-up toward the highs marked in April and March, around 1.0885 and 1.0985 in that order, can’t be ruled out. It should be observed, however, that a slew of hurdles near the 1.1000 threshold will challenge the pair’s upside past 1.0985, if not then bulls can aim for a late 2023 high of around 1.1140.

On the contrary, a convergence of the 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the October-December 2023 upside, near 1.0795-90, restricts the short-term downside of the EURUSD pair. Following that, a late April swing high of near 1.0750 and a one-month-old rising support line surrounding 1.0715 will stop the Euro bears from taking control. It’s worth noting that the quote’s sustained weakness past 1.0715 needs validation from the 1.0700 threshold before challenging the yearly low of 1.0600.

To sum up, the EURUSD pair is in the uptrend and hence capable of crossing the immediate resistances. However, the surprise element of the US inflation data and little room toward the north require buyers to be cautious.