Intermediate Bottom Nearing

21 ม.ค. 2015

The massive Euro correction that took place in mid 2014 could possibly be nearing its initial end with the completion of the 1st corrective wave A. This should be in line with macro-economic fundamentals, given a positive message emanating from Euro Zone with Mario Draghi's last ditch plan of QE, that could bring about composition of debt restructuring in the peripheral EU region, leading to some capital inflow and EU integration. However, by the token of basic logic, QE should bring an increase in money supply that would run counter to the above argument and further Fed imminent interest rate increase decision would certainly put a damper on Euro. But purely from a technical perspective, the double zig zag correction points to a intermediate bottom. This could be followed by some appreciation as wave B runs counter to A and then a final correction, that could even surpass the current level of ~ 1.16 Euro/US$, and take the parity lower as wave C unfolds over 2015. This would also tally with interest rate hike decision by the Fed that could take some time and consideration for implementation and could take place in the second half of 2015.