The strategy for this week
The strategy for this week is to look for opportunities in the upcoming events.
On Tuesday, Germany's inflation data will be released, which is expected to rise from 6.1% to 6.4%. If there is a deviation greater than 6.5%, it could be an opportunity to buy euros, as it would indicate that the economically strongest country in Europe has not been able to reduce inflation, increasing the likelihood of the European Central Bank continuing to raise its rates, creating more demand for the euro. On the other hand, if there is a negative deviation of 6.3% or less, it could be an opportunity to sell, as it would decrease the probability of the ECB continuing to raise its rates, increasing the supply of the euro. Additionally, England's unemployment data will be released, which is expected to remain at 3.8%. If there is a deviation below 3.7%, it could be an opportunity to buy pounds, as increased employment creates more inflation and causes central banks to raise their rates, creating more demand for the currency. On the other hand, if there is a deviation of 4% or more, it could be an opportunity to sell pounds.
The decision on New Zealand's interest rate will also be announced, which could generate opportunities to buy New Zealand dollars if more rate hikes are forecast. However, if rate cuts are discussed, it could be an opportunity to sell.
Wednesday will be the most important data of the week, as US inflation will be released, which is expected to decrease from 4% to 3.1%, approaching the Fed's 2% target. If it comes out higher than 4%, it could be an opportunity to buy USD, and if there is a deviation below 2.9%, it could be an option to sell dollars.
The Bank of Canada's minutes on its interest rate decision will also be released, which is expected to increase from 4.75% to 5.0%. If the BOC surprises the market by holding rates instead of raising them, it could be a great opportunity to sell Canadian dollars. However, if the Bank of Canada increases its rate to more than 5%, it could present an opportunity to buy New Zealand dollars. On Thursday, the PPI data, one of the most important data for US inflation, will be released, which is expected to decrease from 2.8% to 2.6%. If there is a deviation greater than 2.8%, it could be an opportunity to buy dollars, and if there is a deviation less than 2.5%, it could be an option to sell dollars.
Finally, on Friday, the US Michigan Sentiment will be released, which is expected to increase from 64.4 to 65.5. If it comes out higher than 67, it could be a good idea to open a position to buy dollars, and if there is a deviation below 63.2, it could be an opportunity to sell the dollar.
On Tuesday, Germany's inflation data will be released, which is expected to rise from 6.1% to 6.4%. If there is a deviation greater than 6.5%, it could be an opportunity to buy euros, as it would indicate that the economically strongest country in Europe has not been able to reduce inflation, increasing the likelihood of the European Central Bank continuing to raise its rates, creating more demand for the euro. On the other hand, if there is a negative deviation of 6.3% or less, it could be an opportunity to sell, as it would decrease the probability of the ECB continuing to raise its rates, increasing the supply of the euro. Additionally, England's unemployment data will be released, which is expected to remain at 3.8%. If there is a deviation below 3.7%, it could be an opportunity to buy pounds, as increased employment creates more inflation and causes central banks to raise their rates, creating more demand for the currency. On the other hand, if there is a deviation of 4% or more, it could be an opportunity to sell pounds.
The decision on New Zealand's interest rate will also be announced, which could generate opportunities to buy New Zealand dollars if more rate hikes are forecast. However, if rate cuts are discussed, it could be an opportunity to sell.
Wednesday will be the most important data of the week, as US inflation will be released, which is expected to decrease from 4% to 3.1%, approaching the Fed's 2% target. If it comes out higher than 4%, it could be an opportunity to buy USD, and if there is a deviation below 2.9%, it could be an option to sell dollars.
The Bank of Canada's minutes on its interest rate decision will also be released, which is expected to increase from 4.75% to 5.0%. If the BOC surprises the market by holding rates instead of raising them, it could be a great opportunity to sell Canadian dollars. However, if the Bank of Canada increases its rate to more than 5%, it could present an opportunity to buy New Zealand dollars. On Thursday, the PPI data, one of the most important data for US inflation, will be released, which is expected to decrease from 2.8% to 2.6%. If there is a deviation greater than 2.8%, it could be an opportunity to buy dollars, and if there is a deviation less than 2.5%, it could be an option to sell dollars.
Finally, on Friday, the US Michigan Sentiment will be released, which is expected to increase from 64.4 to 65.5. If it comes out higher than 67, it could be a good idea to open a position to buy dollars, and if there is a deviation below 63.2, it could be an opportunity to sell the dollar.
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