Long-term technical view of EUR/USD

Here's a chart that I find really interesting. I only now realized that the failure below $1.17 three weeks ago shows up at a pullback on a historical trend line that the euro break back in January. I would like to wait for the FOMC statement this week and see if this chart can help continue justifying a long-term bearish bias on EURUSD. Right now, I see an upside risk ahead of the FOMC statement given that speculative shorts in futures markets have been rising in recent days. I wouldn't be surprised to see traders cut some of these positions if the Fed does raise rates.