EUR weekly complex - bird view - loop until USD
EURUSD:
- Analysis in details on link below
- High importance of 1,10-1,11 area: major downtrendline, Kijun Sen and forward Senkou B (Kumo top) down there I marked with a thick horizontal line. Above that 1,14 is next key.
- Will this story develop on back of ECB or rather because of FED U-turn in policy? I think it will be a mixture of both, but FED factor later this year will be stronger.
EURGBP:
- Confirmed weekly Bullish breakout! Maybe some resistance ahead ard 0,7800, as Chikou faces past Kumo hit, and there's a prev key horizontal level too. Any retest to 0,74+ area will be a buy opportunity! BoE has made its U-turn, joining global ccy war again
EURNOK:
- Nothing new here, due to Oil collapse it has been trending up in wide range since 2 years now. Actually reached top of channel, which makes it recently a relatively better performer. (not much hit in 2016, compared to CAD or AUD)
- Key supports up to 9,40 and 9,15. Norges is less likely to cut rates any time soon, as inflation is already high in Norway due to multi year ccy weakness.
EURSEK:
- Despite negative rates and QE implemented in Sweden, SEK is still relatively strong. Riksbank is following ECB 1:1, they try to stop any ccy appretiation.
- Ihimoku setup is back to neutral. I don't really have any startegic view here.
EURAUD:
- Boom, there goes bullish continuation: China, commodities, RBA rate cut expectations, global economy slowdown.
- If it starts to behave as NOK, then lot more room to go up in the channel. Even 1,70+ is possible.
EURCAD:
- Double Boom-Boom. Suddenly CAD has become the most hated ccy in the world. It is the new "NOK". Their economy is sufferring, mkt expect Poloz to cut rates.
- I don't know how high it goes, I don't know if we'll see any pull back any time soon. What I see is 1,50 - 1,52 is becoming a strong long term bullish support.
- My question is not about Oil here, that story is too old to talk about! My question is if Canada is so much down, shouldn't we think there might be some bigger economic problem rising soon in the neighbour USA too?????
LOOP - UNTIL -> EURUSD
So tell me FED will stick to hike 4 times (or even just once more) this year, with: such a devaluation ccy war, deflationary fears, China and global slowdown, Banking sectors in trouble, Stock markets in bearish mood
My honest opinion is that within 2-3 months they will join the war again... funny that I think this would help ECB policy, as Draghi is not really targetting the EUR fx rate, but he is looking at Italian Banks situation, financial stability and most importantly at periferia bonds price action! (especially Italy :-) So a non-hawkish, or maybe even dovish-like FED may send EURUSD higher, but would at least temporarely stop global panic, and help to fight ECB and other CBs against their deflationary fears...
- Analysis in details on link below
- High importance of 1,10-1,11 area: major downtrendline, Kijun Sen and forward Senkou B (Kumo top) down there I marked with a thick horizontal line. Above that 1,14 is next key.
- Will this story develop on back of ECB or rather because of FED U-turn in policy? I think it will be a mixture of both, but FED factor later this year will be stronger.
EURGBP:
- Confirmed weekly Bullish breakout! Maybe some resistance ahead ard 0,7800, as Chikou faces past Kumo hit, and there's a prev key horizontal level too. Any retest to 0,74+ area will be a buy opportunity! BoE has made its U-turn, joining global ccy war again
EURNOK:
- Nothing new here, due to Oil collapse it has been trending up in wide range since 2 years now. Actually reached top of channel, which makes it recently a relatively better performer. (not much hit in 2016, compared to CAD or AUD)
- Key supports up to 9,40 and 9,15. Norges is less likely to cut rates any time soon, as inflation is already high in Norway due to multi year ccy weakness.
EURSEK:
- Despite negative rates and QE implemented in Sweden, SEK is still relatively strong. Riksbank is following ECB 1:1, they try to stop any ccy appretiation.
- Ihimoku setup is back to neutral. I don't really have any startegic view here.
EURAUD:
- Boom, there goes bullish continuation: China, commodities, RBA rate cut expectations, global economy slowdown.
- If it starts to behave as NOK, then lot more room to go up in the channel. Even 1,70+ is possible.
EURCAD:
- Double Boom-Boom. Suddenly CAD has become the most hated ccy in the world. It is the new "NOK". Their economy is sufferring, mkt expect Poloz to cut rates.
- I don't know how high it goes, I don't know if we'll see any pull back any time soon. What I see is 1,50 - 1,52 is becoming a strong long term bullish support.
- My question is not about Oil here, that story is too old to talk about! My question is if Canada is so much down, shouldn't we think there might be some bigger economic problem rising soon in the neighbour USA too?????
LOOP - UNTIL -> EURUSD
So tell me FED will stick to hike 4 times (or even just once more) this year, with: such a devaluation ccy war, deflationary fears, China and global slowdown, Banking sectors in trouble, Stock markets in bearish mood
My honest opinion is that within 2-3 months they will join the war again... funny that I think this would help ECB policy, as Draghi is not really targetting the EUR fx rate, but he is looking at Italian Banks situation, financial stability and most importantly at periferia bonds price action! (especially Italy :-) So a non-hawkish, or maybe even dovish-like FED may send EURUSD higher, but would at least temporarely stop global panic, and help to fight ECB and other CBs against their deflationary fears...
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