Long EURNZD (1H Chart - valid through Tuesday 5Sep17)

31 ส.ค. 2017

My Fundamental Scorecard indicates a continue EUR strong going into the week (Rank 1 amongst major currency). On the other hand the recent weakness from NZD stemming since Governor Wheeler's speech yesterday set it as weakest amongst the Major currency. We use today's Unemployment rate and CPI release as a trigger for a stronger EURNZD pair.

Looking to go long if it pull back to 1.6582 Weekly Pivot level and our TP target is the next Pivot level of 1.6694.

1 ก.ย. 2017

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Price action has not been supportive so far. I'm in at 1.65911 (Stop Loss 1.65517).

The general idea is still intact as I don't see major news from EUR or NZD but it seems like trader is considering this week's Pivot 1.66188 as a good resistance with price bouncing off 4 times already.

If you don't have a position yet I think you can get in at a more favourable entry to mine now. The attention is probably stay on USD for NFP so I don't expect this pair to make any break through until next week.

I'd take the risk and hold it through weekend. TP is at 1,6681.

1 ก.ย. 2017

บันทึกช่วยจำ

My stop loss was hit and I'm out (-0.5% balance).

Post Trade Review: I underesimated the effect of NFP on this pair. There was too much selling of EUR and my stop was hit amidst the volatility surge. To avoid this I will do more analysis on historical impact NFP has had on this pair in the past, hopefully this will give hints to deal with this in the future.

Second mistake was I was too confident and did not monitor the trade properly. The trade was in profit all the way to NFP release and there is more than enough time to move the stop loss to break-even or even more aggressively to profit near the "broken" Pivot 1.66197. Again this is also stem from not understanding the NFP's magnitude. In the future, I will pay more attention to trade monitor process when I'm not at the desk.

Side Note: Pivot point of the current week gets more important toward Friday ending and thus can be used as soft support/resistance for trade.

Forecast: I still think EURNZD can move up but I will not jump the gun at this point and instead assess all the other pairs more carefully to select trade for next week.