This is a very high confluent trade with fundamentals to back it.
1. SSI Index showing high percent of retail traders short 2. Just completed D of a AB=CD pattern 3. At the .618 fib level of the last leg 4. Holding support at a prior resistance area. 5. Divergence of the 4 hour 6. Also, you can see the trendline is holding as well 7. AUD news coming in about 24 hours, which should send the AUD down.