Educational: 3 ways to determine if the market is overvalued

3 ก.ค. 2023

Introduction
The issue with determining if a market is overvalued is the fact that depending on your perspective the market always seems overvalued. In this publication we will explore 3 sound ways to determine if the market is overpriced and see how they works.


🔷Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio

The Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, sometimes referred to as the Shiller CAPE ratio or cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio, is a measure of stock market valuation. It was created by Robert Shiller, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, and it is used to determine if a market is overpriced or undervalued.

The classic P/E ratio works by dividing the stock price of a firm by its EPS over the previous twelve months. The Shiller P/E ratio, on the other hand, adopts a longer-term strategy by considering the trailing 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings over the prior 10 years.


The Shiller P/E ratio is calculated using the following formula:

Stock market index price divided by the average of the prior ten years' worth of inflation-adjusted earnings is known as the Shiller P/E ratio.

The Shiller P/E ratio provides a more thorough picture of the market's valuation by using the 10-year average to smooth out short-term swings. It aids in mitigating the effects of brief increases or decreases in incomes brought on by economic cycles.

Market valuation levels are frequently determined using the Shiller P/E ratio. It is possible that the market is overvalued and that future returns will be lower if the Shiller P/E ratio is high. A low Shiller P/E ratio, on the other hand, would suggest that the market is undervalued and that future returns might be higher.

The Shiller P/E ratio should be used in conjunction with other fundamental and technical indicators, as it is not a perfect forecast of market moves. Investors and analysts use a variety of tools to analyze the state of the market and choose which investments to make.



🔷Brock Value
The brock value is a measure of valuation that bases its assessment of the S&P 500 index's intrinsic worth on two inputs: GDP and interest rates. Peter Brock, a writer and financial expert, created it. This is how the brock value is determined:

Where r is the yield on medium-term corporate bonds, GDP is the US gross domestic product, and BV is the Brock value.

The S&P 500 index's real price can be compared with the brock value to assess whether it is overpriced or underpriced. According to Brock, the market often fluctuates between 30% and 20% over the Brock value. Extreme valuation and probable turning points are indicated when the market is above or below these ranges.

For example, as of June 2, 2023, the brock value was 2441.65, while the S&P 500 index closed at 4282.37, which means the market was 75.4% overpriced1. This suggests that the market is in a risky territory and may face a significant correction in the future. Conversely, if the market was below the dotted green line on the brock value chart, it would indicate that the market was underpriced and may offer attractive returns in the long term



🔷Market Volatility
Market volatility is a gauge of how much the entire value of the stock market goes up and down. By examining the correlation between volatility and investor sentiment, it is possible to ascertain whether the market is overvalued. Investor sentiment is the overall attitude or mood of investors toward the market, and it can be affected by a number of things, including news, events, expectations, emotions, etc.

Utilizing implicit indices that represent investor behavior and preferences, such as put-call ratio, trading volume, dividend yield, etc., is one technique to gauge investor sentiment. A high put-call ratio, for instance, suggests that investors are purchasing put options more frequently than call options, which suggests a bearish or pessimistic mindset. When investors are actively trading in the market, there is a high degree of interest and enthusiasm, which is shown by a high trade volume. An investor's willingness to pay more for companies that pay fewer dividends is indicated by a low dividend yield, which suggests a positive or upbeat attitude.

Some research imply a link between investor sentiment and market volatility that is unfavorable. This implies that market volatility is low (stable) while investor sentiment is high (optimistic), and vice versa. This can be explained by the premise that when investors are upbeat, they tend to disregard bad news and concentrate on good news, which lowers market uncertainty and discord. On the other side, pessimistic investors have a propensity to overreact to bad news and disregard good news, which exacerbates market uncertainty and discord.

Therefore, by examining the divergence from the historical average or trend, one can utilize market volatility as a signal of market overvaluation. Market volatility may indicate that investor sentiment is excessively high and the market is overpriced if it is low relative to its historical level. The market may be undervalued if volatility is high compared to historical levels, indicating that investor confidence is too low. This strategy should be employed cautiously, though, as there may be additional variables, such as prevailing economic conditions, interest rates, and earnings growth, that influence market volatility and valuation.
Below is the VIX which is the volatility index.