S&P 500 Bear Surprise Bar changes context
The emini sold off strongly on February without reaching ambitious Measured Moves Targets around 3500.
The downside was so surprisingly big that erased all the bull breakout, meaning that now there is a 60% chance of a Measured Move down to 2300 area. This means that it will break a Key Bullish Trendline: If it brokes, the macro bullish trend will finish and we will enter a Trading Range mode, possibly during all this current decade that just started. Less likely (40% of the time) this will be the start of a Bear trend.
In case that the Key bullish trendline it is broken, the next levels where the price might find support are the 1700/2100 agreement area and the 200 Simple Moving Average.
The downside was so surprisingly big that erased all the bull breakout, meaning that now there is a 60% chance of a Measured Move down to 2300 area. This means that it will break a Key Bullish Trendline: If it brokes, the macro bullish trend will finish and we will enter a Trading Range mode, possibly during all this current decade that just started. Less likely (40% of the time) this will be the start of a Bear trend.
In case that the Key bullish trendline it is broken, the next levels where the price might find support are the 1700/2100 agreement area and the 200 Simple Moving Average.