Post-election returns pattern from 1996

5 พ.ย. 2016

We have an interesting pattern, going back to the 1996 elections. I overlay the one year inflation adjusted returns of the dollar, S&P500, gold and 30 year treasury yields. I see some paralells regarding price action, and would be interesting to see if we get a similar situation going forward.
This is just an observation and what I think is likely to happen based on the pattern of price action after the elections.

Feel free to leave your comments.

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.

5 พ.ย. 2016

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We can expand a bit more on the concept here. For instance, regarding social mood, this is a good read: es.scribd.com/document/30943266/Social-Mood-and-Financial-Economics-2005-John-Nofsinger

Right now I'd say we have peak pessimism, distrust, lower merger activity, IPOs, lower consumer spending, deleveraging since the peak in the Yen, but it looks like things could turn around.

5 พ.ย. 2016

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For example, one can extrapolate this concept, and find certain similarities. I for one, had great periods of creativity as a musician, and of discovery of new and exciting bands and artists right before stock market peaks. Assesing me personal feelings and appreciations, I can see that most of the artists I enjoy, and their best work in my opinion coincides with these periods, leading to a slump, after the peak.

Nowadays, I find myself in such a slump, but as an individual actor, I'm also part of the whole, and it's easy to see the similarities in different fields, like arts, economics, politics, culture, showing these same cycles of boom and bust...Certainly an interesting phenomenon.

What is your take, from your particular field? Perhaps someone can comment further on the subject.

6 พ.ย. 2016

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Looks to be on track.

10 พ.ย. 2016

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Exactly 100% as expected, but at a faster pace! This is a radical move...fastest recovery since 2008 lows.

6 ธ.ค. 2016

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There ya go...Nostradamus who?

16 ธ.ค. 2016

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Looks good so far.

28 ธ.ค. 2016

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A correction in pretty much everything seems logical here.