CREE, 50-day MA moved above its 200-MA on June 15

A buy signal is generated. In 3 of 3 cases where CREE's 50-day Moving Average crossed above its 200-day Moving Average, its price rose further (4%) within the subsequent month. It means that the odds of a continued Uptrend are 100% but if I give a discount 10% for the uncertainty then the odds of success are 90%.