Oil: Emerging uptrend

30 ม.ค. 2016

Crude oil has reached the weekly downtrend target I had labeled on my charts, and way ahead of time.
Amidst droves of hype, and news stories about Iran's contribution to global glut, and panic, oil started rallying (typically, after reaching a sentiment extreme, clearly diagnosed by my mentor, Tim West, in his publication calling the bottom in oil, with a 10 dollar downside risk, but potential for high 40s up).
The technical elements are there, we're approaching the end of the time for this downtrend, which implies a retest of 45.21 in the coming weeks is possible.

Knowing the general trayectory, we can look for signals in the daily and lower timeframes to enter long positions, and scale in, navigating this emerging uptrend until we hit the target on chart (if we ever do).
For the time being I'm long, and looking to add to this trade.
The recent news about Japan mega-dovish stance has been the catalyst for a surge in the bonds and gold, and I think this will transpire into oil and silver as well.

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.

1 ก.พ. 2016

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Might take a while to resume the move up, but still bullish overall.

2 ก.พ. 2016

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่

Reentered longs.

2 ก.พ. 2016

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If we don't hit 28,99 in 2 days I'll add to longs to average my entry. I'm in it as a pair trade with usdcad longs. (both long)

3 ก.พ. 2016

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Tomorrow we'll probably have a buy signal again. To add if still in.

3 ก.พ. 2016

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Adding to longs on a new signal.

3 ก.พ. 2016

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(not yet, tomorrow maybe, or the day after tomorrow)

3 ก.พ. 2016

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Longs are winning this tug of war.
The best strategy is to buy corrections, in this case we have a new potential uptrend signal emerging, right after this new mode has formed. I'll add to longs aggressively once it's confirmed.

5 ก.พ. 2016

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I'll wait for the oil chart to align better for longs. It's considerably choppy in lower timeframes.

9 ก.พ. 2016

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24.67 might get hit. We have a daily downtrend now.

10 ก.พ. 2016

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Price stuck at the options expiration support.

12 ก.พ. 2016

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่

I'm long oil as a pair trade with a gold short.

12 ก.พ. 2016

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Great progress!
In from 27.87.

12 ก.พ. 2016

บันทึกช่วยจำ

*28.87

9 มี.ค. 2016

ปิดการเทรด ด้วยตนเอง

You can exit longs and flip short, use a 3 ATR sl (5 points to be safe) Then trail it closer after 2.5 point profit.

27 มี.ค. 2016

บันทึกช่วยจำ

The path was more or less correctly diagnosed.

Now, we reached a critical level, I'm holding shorts from 41.7-41.14, but we might see a new leg up before a steeper retracement begins.

Pay attention to the 39 zone.