TWO GEO-POLITICAL EVENTS WHICH DEFINED SUPPLY RISK FOR YEARS

The start of the Arab Spring cemented prices in a range above $80 where market forces and shale production might have otherwise forced prices down in 2012. The late summer Obama ordered airstrikes on ISIS after the group overran Mosul - this action all but took a Basra Iraq supply disruption off the table as clearly the US would defend Baghdad and all production centric cities to the south. The efforts also forced the hand of the central Iraq government to allow Kurdish sales of Iraqi oil that would otherwise be left in limbo.