Bund Projections

19 ม.ค.

Sometimes a drawing can speak better than words, or at least present an idea in a better and more efficient way. This project involves projected tendencies and forces that might affect the price, represented with the curves as attractors and influencers with their respective arrows pointing the direction of the potential simulated pressure applied to the tendencies of the market.

Rectangles are projected potential support and resistance in their respective time zone. The white one is different, the exception to the rule, but it could end up having some interesting price action near it (/if the price reaches that zone).

The purple cross is interesting with it's time stamp for a potential time zone of interest, while it's marked price level could be relevant if the price reaches it in this project. Orange rectangle is the wild card which could end up being irrelevant as trying to predict potential simulated scenarios of evolution of price action is not a concrete and exact science and we deal with probabilities and tendencies.

The purple monster curve wishes to be the big kahuna of the project if it ends up being a success, meaning relevant price action is to be watched near it. All elements can provide signals through Japanese Candlestick analysis and hunt for inflection points / reversals, but the purple one could be the big showdown whether it is a bounce, or a break and retest, the function of the curve is applied with the intention of catching as many as possible potential simulated scenarios and unfoldings of events.

Nen projects are for recreational purposes only and the authors are not liable in case of loss of capital caused by the trading decisions inspired by them. Every trader is responsible for his own trades and decisions. May the force of profits be with you!

2 ก.พ.

บันทึก

Rebound from the red curve but doesn't look convincing for the complete end of the bull wave. We are in the white rectangle zone, let's see if the bulls get back in this or completely abandon this market for the next week.

5 ก.พ.

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Further drop in price. Looking forward to see if the projections were accurate enough so that we see some price action indicative of support at the bottom red curve if the price reaches it in the next trading days.

8 ก.พ.

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Touchdown on the bottom red curve...

12 ก.พ.

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A little rebound from the bottom red curve. Let's see if it holds, or we end up visiting the green rectangle eventually.

15 ก.พ.

บันทึก

With the risk of polluting this intriguing idea with some nonsense, considering both red curves have proven to be quite relevant and precise in detecting zones of influence and pressure on the price, here is a snapshot with 3 pretty basic simulations. If the proposed support zone of the green rectangle doesn't hold or make the price rebound, of course this could slide into space behind the purple curve and all bets are off. On the other hand one might as what is the probability for the very bullish scenarios to unfold? Once you have the estimated probability you can calculate your risk using your preferred stop loss and a modest target using the projections from the simulations. THEN, if your probability estimation is decently correct, you can asses your potential edge or mathematical advantage to figure out if the law of large numbers dictates that it is wise to make that bet. In other words, to risk one dollar to win 10 in an event with a chance of 11% of success, is actually a smart bet. because the law of large numbers says that if you make that bet 100 times, you will win 11 of those, making 110$, wile losing 89$ on the rest of the losing bets. :) do you know your edge? I don't know mine :) I just draw random mumbo jumbo when I am high on nicotine and sugar.

22 ก.พ.

บันทึก

Interesting setup with a hammer and a nice candlestick shadow inside the green rectangle. If the bottom level holds, we could see a push towards 133.6

26 ก.พ.

บันทึก

Price reached 133.55 then dropped to 133.15. Short term noise we might see 133 then push back to 133.38 then drop to 132.8... Noise not that relevant, I prefer to look at the bigger picture and wait to see how the candlesticks look near the close or after, on the daily.

26 ก.พ.

บันทึก

Seems like the red curve acted as resistance here. Let's see if the green rectangle holds any support. Bullish candles needed for any prospect of a longer bullish wave.

29 ก.พ.

บันทึก

Another candlestick shadow inside the green rectangle confirming the support idea for now in this zone, but I am not too confident in this setup. Looking forward to see what happens at the purple though. Will post updates if anything significant pops up until then.

12 มี.ค.

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Tomorrow is the marked time stamp and it looks surprisingly bearish for now. It needs a decisive bullish day with a candlestick shadow below or a solid rally to turn things around in this crucial intersection of elements, the time stamp, the rectangle and the purple curve, otherwise it could just drift behind the purple curve in the same bearish sluggish kind of mood.

19 มี.ค.

บันทึก

A little stop at the lower edge of the green again, but we are behind the purple which changes the perspective a little bit. Let's see if this level holds as long as the rectangle is still around...

17 เม.ย.

บันทึก

What happens under the purple stays under the purple. 133 marked level solidly acted as resistance pushing eventually the price lower. My projections for bonds have been quite off recently. Might take a while until I can cook another idea for any of them as everything kind of changes from week to week. Until then, I leave this red zone here which could initiate a modest correction towards the purple. Not necessarily tradable.

24 เม.ย.

บันทึก

The 3 gray dots are somewhat of a sign of fine retuning and adaptation to the new conditions and situation in the bond markets with the level of the bottom one reached. Not convinced of the retracement scenario for the purple yet.

4 มิ.ย.

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Rebound from the lower edge of the red zone and we could actually see the purple eventually. First, the upper edge needs to be broken.

17 มิ.ย.

บันทึก

We end the project with the price reaching the green marked price level right at the purple rectangle confirming the proposed scenario of a correction or wave from red to here.