BTC: market structure shows us the next likely path

21 ก.ค. 2020

Recent price action of BTC has been disconcertingly stable. This has allowed alts to run, so I'm not complaining. But the question every trader is trying to answer is: which way next? What happens after all this consolidation - a final shakeout sub 8k before the inevitable rise, or a slow grind up that no-one believes until they're forced to capitulate and panic-buy?

You could draw a thousand triangles over Bitcoin's price action, but looking at the last couple of months, I see a triangle forming, with an inconclusive ending (drawn in blue). It broke more up than down, but still basically sideways.

What caught my eye is a change in the market structure. You can see it in the Williams Trailing Stops indicator, where we broke the yellow short stop line, but, unlike every previous break, we didn't immediately go and break the opposing trail (the orange stop line).
In other words, we made a High, followed by a Higher Low. If price crosses the horizontal blue line, we will have made a Higher High. This signals an old-fashioned change in market structure, and gives us more reason to be bullish than bearish.

Other Reasons To Be Cheerful are the daily exponential moving averages. I've added just three of them (21, 55, 89) to make the point. The 89 has held as support, the 21 stayed over the 55, and price is now the right side of them all. A few days of closes above the 21D EMA would have it start to curl up, "bouncing" off the 55, which would be a very bullish sign.

Indicators used: TradingView Exponential Moving Average, Williams Fractal Trailing Stops

23 ก.ค. 2020

บันทึก

Higher High is in. I don't think it's likely to just smash up through the resistance for no reason. Again, this is just for bias, not a trade entry.