BTC/USDT: 19400 penetrating opening the door to lower drop

BTC/USDT: 19400 penetrating opening the doors to lower consolidation

Context
- The Global Crypto market leads by BTC and ETH reversed a new bullish trend this summer - however the market is now challenging the capacity to go higher, 24900 never been reintegrated
- The global macro remains bearish (Crypto + Stocks market) leads by hawkish ton from central bank and a further inflation risk context
- BTC remains a long-term out-performer versus ETH

Previous Analysis 16/09/2022 : https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/QLxLW0wv-BTC-USDT-Neutral-between-19400-and-24900-Caution/



Market configuration

- Graphical Elements :

Graphical Resistance = 23650 & 20700
Graphical Support = 16100 / 14600

- Mathematical Indicators:
EMA ( Exp Moving averages) are resistances below 23650 = Bearish
RSI indicator (below) is below 50% with no divergence = Bearish

- Elliot & Harmonic Wave (Fibonacci):
A last drop to draw the wave 5 C (4) has been completed - however a deeper elliott account can't be occur
Fibonacci resistance of the wave = 23650
Fibonacci support of the wave is 16100
Fibonacci upside target = 28800
Fibonacci downside target = 16100 / 14600 / 12400

Conclusion

Combining the fondamental situation (Global macro fighting against inflation with hawkish ton from FED) + Technical Elements , it now hard to find element to call for a further recovery, it is better to protect the gains from the summer and wait for clearer situation

Prefered case = As long as 23650 and 20700 are acting as resistance a further downside move is more likely with 16100 and 14600 as downside target.

Only 23650 in daily close reintegrated would invalidate the direct drop, opening at least a trading range opportunity with 28800 as upper part for now