Comparing BTC Correction To Previous Correction
ที่อัปเดต:
The main argument among traders and investors right now is whether or not we have completed the correction. I have been diving deep into the previous correction for the last two weeks to try to get clues as to where we are in this correction.
I have divided the previous correction into four quadrants indicated by their color coding. I have also done this on the current correction. While China FUD certainly did not cause this correction, it merely was a catalyst to get things moving faster and have selloffs happen quicker. There were many predictions made that $5000 would have to correct to $3000. It was in no way surprising that the big round number of $5000 was a take profit zone. Then with the China FUD, we saw panic. And with that, we saw an extremely fast correction. Our previous correction took almost two months to get to the stage we are at now, which has only taken us 24 days. That is, if we are at the stage I think we are at. If we have only completed stage 1... well... this is going to last a long time, like several months long time.
If we are at the stage I think we are at, where we have completed the correction entirely, well, there seems to be some key differences between this correction and the last one in regards to price levels. Last time, at this stage we were breaking through the All Time High. Right now, we're just trying to knock on $4000's door. Also, when we bottomed out with our previous correction, we were testing the All Time High again in four days.
So, by merely comparing this correction to the last one, I am left with these thoughts:
1. We have completed the correction. Yet, there doesn't seem to be any signs of strong bullish momentum, creating concern that this is not ready to start setting new All Time Highs and we might have to correct again.
2. We have completed the first stage of the correction, which is indicated by the purple box on the chart, and we are no where near finished correcting.
Nothing about this tells me we are about to start running with the bulls yet. However, if it is following the previous correction, there should be some upward movement in our forecast this next week. I just don't see it in the chart nor do I see it in the indicators telling me it's time to go all in or start celebrating yet as the bears have a pretty tight grip.
This is my first published idea. It obviously provides no guidance on where the market will go, or what you should do. It is merely an observation post. I hope you get some value out of it. As always, do your own research, and do not depend on what I say or anyone else says as the reason why you make a financial decision. Decide for yourself. Good luck.
I have divided the previous correction into four quadrants indicated by their color coding. I have also done this on the current correction. While China FUD certainly did not cause this correction, it merely was a catalyst to get things moving faster and have selloffs happen quicker. There were many predictions made that $5000 would have to correct to $3000. It was in no way surprising that the big round number of $5000 was a take profit zone. Then with the China FUD, we saw panic. And with that, we saw an extremely fast correction. Our previous correction took almost two months to get to the stage we are at now, which has only taken us 24 days. That is, if we are at the stage I think we are at. If we have only completed stage 1... well... this is going to last a long time, like several months long time.
If we are at the stage I think we are at, where we have completed the correction entirely, well, there seems to be some key differences between this correction and the last one in regards to price levels. Last time, at this stage we were breaking through the All Time High. Right now, we're just trying to knock on $4000's door. Also, when we bottomed out with our previous correction, we were testing the All Time High again in four days.
So, by merely comparing this correction to the last one, I am left with these thoughts:
1. We have completed the correction. Yet, there doesn't seem to be any signs of strong bullish momentum, creating concern that this is not ready to start setting new All Time Highs and we might have to correct again.
2. We have completed the first stage of the correction, which is indicated by the purple box on the chart, and we are no where near finished correcting.
Nothing about this tells me we are about to start running with the bulls yet. However, if it is following the previous correction, there should be some upward movement in our forecast this next week. I just don't see it in the chart nor do I see it in the indicators telling me it's time to go all in or start celebrating yet as the bears have a pretty tight grip.
This is my first published idea. It obviously provides no guidance on where the market will go, or what you should do. It is merely an observation post. I hope you get some value out of it. As always, do your own research, and do not depend on what I say or anyone else says as the reason why you make a financial decision. Decide for yourself. Good luck.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
With this rise and stop we have today at $4100, that is equivalent to when we took our second shot at the ATH at $3000 after the bottom of the correction on August 1st. So, if we are going to continue just like we did with our last correction, then we now drop down to about $3600, and then we start moving upward beyond $4100.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
I am starting to believe the second option, that we have been in the purple zone this whole time. The only reason the shape is slightly different was that on September 8th we had China FUD.This caused the sharp drop, rather than a curved drop.
In my opinion, we are now at the beginning of the green zone from the previous correction.
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