BTCUSD possible paths
I assign a drop to 8.8-9k range a very high probability as my primary bearish count and bullish alternative would both feature a drop to this price range.
In my opinion a drop below the line at 8.7k invalidates the potential 5 wave move higher as wave 4 would cross below wave 1 leading me to strongly decrease probabilities assigned to bullish scenarios. If this situation occurs my primary count will consider this current drop from $11700 a 5 wave impulse lower rather than an ABC correction.
My primary count has an expected wave 3 completion in the 8.4k-8.5k range.
My bullish secondary count has ABC correction completion at 8.8k-9k.
Strategy -
Close shorts and long 8.8k-9k, then close longs and short 9.4k-9.5k with stops at 9.8k.
If the primary count is wrong we will go through this resistance and likely bounce off 9.8k giving opportunities to close shorts close to 9.5k with a break even or minor loss only. We would then look for a break above and retest of 10.5k before opening longs.
If the primary account is correct we hope to close shorts and long the 8.4k-8.5k range. Then close longs and short at 9.4k in preparation for an expected wave 5 lower.
In my opinion a drop below the line at 8.7k invalidates the potential 5 wave move higher as wave 4 would cross below wave 1 leading me to strongly decrease probabilities assigned to bullish scenarios. If this situation occurs my primary count will consider this current drop from $11700 a 5 wave impulse lower rather than an ABC correction.
My primary count has an expected wave 3 completion in the 8.4k-8.5k range.
My bullish secondary count has ABC correction completion at 8.8k-9k.
Strategy -
Close shorts and long 8.8k-9k, then close longs and short 9.4k-9.5k with stops at 9.8k.
If the primary count is wrong we will go through this resistance and likely bounce off 9.8k giving opportunities to close shorts close to 9.5k with a break even or minor loss only. We would then look for a break above and retest of 10.5k before opening longs.
If the primary account is correct we hope to close shorts and long the 8.4k-8.5k range. Then close longs and short at 9.4k in preparation for an expected wave 5 lower.
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