A Massive Surge Disguised as a Decline
✅ Ethereum ETF
First, let's take a look at the news surrounding the Ethereum ETF. It is highly likely that the Ethereum ETF will be approved next week.
If the Ethereum ETF gets approved, our next focus should be on identifying the next ETF product. To make money, it's important not to move in the same way as everyone else but to be quicker and better prepared.
After Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, it seems that there will be two types of coin ETFs that might come out.
First, it is highly likely that additional single-asset ETFs will be introduced. Potential candidates for this include Solana and Ripple.
Second, there is a possibility of an index ETF comprised of top market cap altcoins.
It would be better if the crypto market no longer moved based on Bitcoin's performance, but rather had a clear index ETF to check the market's condition. If the crypto market's rise and fall are determined by the movement of an index ETF comprised of top altcoins, the market can grow even further.
In the second scenario, it won't be the low market cap small caps leading the market, but rather the solid high market cap coins taking the lead, possibly leading to significant buying pressure.
✅ Ripple
Ripple's positive performance seems to be supported by the news that CME Group and CF Benchmarks will launch indices and reference rates for Ripple and ICP.
The CEO of Ripple believes that these indices and reference rates will increase institutional adoption of virtual assets.
Moreover, the upcoming verdict in the lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC is also playing a part.
The crypto market needs a trigger to reverse the current market sentiment. Any coin showing strong upward momentum can stimulate the investment sentiment of market participants.
Currently, Ripple seems to be playing this trigger role.
Ripple is not just a small cap coin; it's a representative high market cap coin, so this recovery movement is significant.
✅ Dollar Index
The dollar index is falling sharply.
Traditionally, the trigger for a bull market in U.S. stocks or the crypto market starts with a decline in the dollar index.
Of course, the dollar index is still at a high level, so we can't be too confident yet. However, if the dollar index continues to break lower and the peaks and troughs become lower, this will positively influence the inflow of buying pressure into the crypto market.
A decline in the value of the dollar means a drop in its value, and as the dollar's value falls, the dollars with nowhere to go will flow into the U.S. stock market or the crypto market.
✅ 90% Chance of September Rate Cut
The drop in the dollar's value is also influenced by the 90% chance of a rate cut in September.
As rate cuts continue, the value of the dollar will decrease. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. significantly lowered interest rates, causing the dollar's value to drop sharply.
As the relative value of the dollar fell, people started buying assets such as stocks, cryptocurrencies, and real estate, which led to an increase in the value of all these assets.
Many seem to be giving up on their long positions now, but let's see if history will repeat itself.
✅ German Government
The German government no longer holds any Bitcoin. As a result, they are left without any Bitcoin.
The average selling price for the German government's BTC was around $58,580, and they sold about 50,000 BTC over 3-4 weeks. Despite the large sell-off in a short period, the price was well defended.
It seems that someone absorbed all the Bitcoin the German government was selling.
The last major negative event for the crypto market is the repayment by Mt. Gox.
However, the upcoming positive events such as the Ethereum ETF approval, rate cuts, and the U.S. presidential election are much more significant compared to this negative event.
✅ Bitcoin Market Share
Bitcoin's market share represents its dominance in the market. It indicates the influence it holds compared to the total market capitalization of the crypto market.
An increase in Bitcoin's market share means a decrease in altcoins' market share, and a decrease in Bitcoin's market share means an increase in altcoins' market share.
Recently, despite Bitcoin's decline, its market share did not rise. Instead, the market share of altcoins increased. This indicates that participants are buying altcoins at lower prices rather than selling them during Bitcoin's decline.
Currently, Bitcoin is showing a rebound, but its market share is declining while the market share of altcoins is rising.
This suggests that the market's interest is significantly shifting towards altcoins rather than Bitcoin.
Although we need to observe a bit longer, if a reversal in market share happens, the 'altcoin season' we've been anticipating may begin, and the market sentiment will shift quickly.
Please monitor the market share closely during Bitcoin's rise and fall.
First, let's take a look at the news surrounding the Ethereum ETF. It is highly likely that the Ethereum ETF will be approved next week.
If the Ethereum ETF gets approved, our next focus should be on identifying the next ETF product. To make money, it's important not to move in the same way as everyone else but to be quicker and better prepared.
After Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, it seems that there will be two types of coin ETFs that might come out.
First, it is highly likely that additional single-asset ETFs will be introduced. Potential candidates for this include Solana and Ripple.
Second, there is a possibility of an index ETF comprised of top market cap altcoins.
It would be better if the crypto market no longer moved based on Bitcoin's performance, but rather had a clear index ETF to check the market's condition. If the crypto market's rise and fall are determined by the movement of an index ETF comprised of top altcoins, the market can grow even further.
In the second scenario, it won't be the low market cap small caps leading the market, but rather the solid high market cap coins taking the lead, possibly leading to significant buying pressure.
✅ Ripple
Ripple's positive performance seems to be supported by the news that CME Group and CF Benchmarks will launch indices and reference rates for Ripple and ICP.
The CEO of Ripple believes that these indices and reference rates will increase institutional adoption of virtual assets.
Moreover, the upcoming verdict in the lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC is also playing a part.
The crypto market needs a trigger to reverse the current market sentiment. Any coin showing strong upward momentum can stimulate the investment sentiment of market participants.
Currently, Ripple seems to be playing this trigger role.
Ripple is not just a small cap coin; it's a representative high market cap coin, so this recovery movement is significant.
✅ Dollar Index
The dollar index is falling sharply.
Traditionally, the trigger for a bull market in U.S. stocks or the crypto market starts with a decline in the dollar index.
Of course, the dollar index is still at a high level, so we can't be too confident yet. However, if the dollar index continues to break lower and the peaks and troughs become lower, this will positively influence the inflow of buying pressure into the crypto market.
A decline in the value of the dollar means a drop in its value, and as the dollar's value falls, the dollars with nowhere to go will flow into the U.S. stock market or the crypto market.
✅ 90% Chance of September Rate Cut
The drop in the dollar's value is also influenced by the 90% chance of a rate cut in September.
As rate cuts continue, the value of the dollar will decrease. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. significantly lowered interest rates, causing the dollar's value to drop sharply.
As the relative value of the dollar fell, people started buying assets such as stocks, cryptocurrencies, and real estate, which led to an increase in the value of all these assets.
Many seem to be giving up on their long positions now, but let's see if history will repeat itself.
✅ German Government
The German government no longer holds any Bitcoin. As a result, they are left without any Bitcoin.
The average selling price for the German government's BTC was around $58,580, and they sold about 50,000 BTC over 3-4 weeks. Despite the large sell-off in a short period, the price was well defended.
It seems that someone absorbed all the Bitcoin the German government was selling.
The last major negative event for the crypto market is the repayment by Mt. Gox.
However, the upcoming positive events such as the Ethereum ETF approval, rate cuts, and the U.S. presidential election are much more significant compared to this negative event.
✅ Bitcoin Market Share
Bitcoin's market share represents its dominance in the market. It indicates the influence it holds compared to the total market capitalization of the crypto market.
An increase in Bitcoin's market share means a decrease in altcoins' market share, and a decrease in Bitcoin's market share means an increase in altcoins' market share.
Recently, despite Bitcoin's decline, its market share did not rise. Instead, the market share of altcoins increased. This indicates that participants are buying altcoins at lower prices rather than selling them during Bitcoin's decline.
Currently, Bitcoin is showing a rebound, but its market share is declining while the market share of altcoins is rising.
This suggests that the market's interest is significantly shifting towards altcoins rather than Bitcoin.
Although we need to observe a bit longer, if a reversal in market share happens, the 'altcoin season' we've been anticipating may begin, and the market sentiment will shift quickly.
Please monitor the market share closely during Bitcoin's rise and fall.
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