Bitcoin - Parabolic phases (1 million USD in 2044)

29 มิ.ย. 2023

• As per my calculations, the price of Bitcoin will be 1 million USD in 2044, which is 21 years ahead. And it's still a pretty optimistic price target, in my opinion.
  
• Please do not expect some big parabolic phase to reach 500,000 USD in the next few months or years. This is not going to happen because you are too late for the party.
  
• In 2017, the crypto bubble popped, and phase 2 of the parabolic phase ended. 2017 was historically the biggest year for altcoins and bitcoin. Everything went up, including scam coins, and it will never be like this again. Now Bitcoin is in phase 3 / phase 4. Phase 3 is not sustainable because otherwise Bitcoin could hit 100 million USD in 10 years. Just calculate the market cap; it doesn't make any sense. That's why I am sober all the time and focus on realistic price targets.
  
• Bitcoin is still a good investment, and you can trade the major cycles. Buy low, sell high. It's easy to say, but it's not that easy for the majority of market participants.
  
• If phase 4 of the parabolic cycle breaks, then it's likely for Bitcoin to go sideways for 5–10 years, but in my opinion, it's not going to happen because the trendline of the parallel channel is pretty low, and with the current date, Bitcoin has to drop below 4700 dollars, which is not going to happen.
  
• This is a very realistic technical analysis. 1 million USD in 2044 is not impossible, but the majority of retail trade thinks that 1 million should be hit in a few years. 
  
• In approx. 2140, all Bitcoins should be mined, and there will be no new BTC mined at all. Miners will receive rewards from the transactions of chain users.
  
• This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I share my trades transparently and post trade setups privately.
  
• Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
  

30 มิ.ย. 2023

บันทึกช่วยจำ

I am glad you like this projection. On the chart, you can see the logarithmic scale. Bitcoin needs to slow down its growth rapidly, because otherwise the price would be 1 billion dollars in 10 years with the same speed.

1 ก.ค. 2023

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Bear markets and crashes:
2011 - 93.75%
2014 - 86.94%
2018 - 84.22%
2022 - 77.57%
2026 - 71% ?

From 105,000 to 30,000 is expected.
Or from 160,000 to 45,000 is expected.