Previous analysis/position: Trading below the volume profile point of control with a 1 month look back period gave me very little confidence in a bounce, gave it a 15% chance. Thought the most likely was to range between $7,250 - $7,500 and form a h&s pattern. Short ETH from $450.
Patterns: Nice Wycoff distribution on the 1 hour. Pointed out that we were in the re distribution phase yesterday after re testing the broken down support. 2nd markdown came this morning.
Horizontal support and resistance: Found support at $7,000 but it should be weak. Strong support = $6,800 and strong resistance should be waiting at $7,400 - $7,500
BTCUSDSHORTS: Starting to build after finding a double bottom at 17,500. Currently testing trend resistance
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0483%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -7,89% | 26 = -5.74% | Both are angling down sharply
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = Current support | 128 = -7.52%
FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,920 | 0.382 = $8,496
Candlestick analysis: Dragon fly, hammers and inverted hammers on 1h show support holding strong at $7,000
Ichimoku Cloud: Just pierced bottom of the cloud, and now it appears to be providing support. C clamp on 5 day cloud.
TD’ Sequential: Price flip on 3d. R-5 on daily.
Visible Range: Point of control over last 24h = $7,375 | POC over last 5 days = $7,528 | POC over last month = $7,444 | POC over last year = $8,190
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -5.94% | 24h = -4.94% | 1w = -14.72% | 2w = -5.08% | 1m = +6.9%
Bollinger Bands: Bottom band on daily = $6,791 | MA on 3d = $6,931 | Back below MA on weekly. Bottom band hanging around $5,500.
Trendline: N/A
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Just took out another daily down fractal. Up remains at $8,367. Next down = $6,085
On Balance Volume: If price fell as hard as daily OBV then we would be back at $6,300.
ADX: -DI just crossed above +DI on weekly. Recent cross on daily with ADX > 25 (trending down)
Chaikin Money Flow: Finally created a lower low on daily.
RSI (30 setting): Just crossed below 50 on daily and weekly.
Stoch: Recent sell signal on 3D. Daily re approaching oversold territory. Weekly still looks healthy
Conclusion: Yesterday I expected a fall straight to $6,800 if we broke down $7,250 support and was surprised to see the reversal candles on the 1 hour chart. The 50 day MA and psychological support coming from the round number is the only reason why I can see the price finding support here.
Conversely the daily cloud could provide a short sale entry in the very near future. We briefly pierced the bottom a bearish cloud, and now it appears to be providing support. However be careful here because we do not have a bearish TK' cross (yet) and we are near significant support.
The daily TD' Sequential indicates 4 days left to the downside. If we get a red 9 at $6,800 then a bounce would be highly probable. If not in a position then I would pass on selling a kumo breakdown and wait to sell the bounce from $6,800 - which should take us back to $7,250 - $7,500.
Patterns: Nice Wycoff distribution on the 1 hour. Pointed out that we were in the re distribution phase yesterday after re testing the broken down support. 2nd markdown came this morning.
Horizontal support and resistance: Found support at $7,000 but it should be weak. Strong support = $6,800 and strong resistance should be waiting at $7,400 - $7,500
BTCUSDSHORTS: Starting to build after finding a double bottom at 17,500. Currently testing trend resistance
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0483%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -7,89% | 26 = -5.74% | Both are angling down sharply
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = Current support | 128 = -7.52%
FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,920 | 0.382 = $8,496
Candlestick analysis: Dragon fly, hammers and inverted hammers on 1h show support holding strong at $7,000
Ichimoku Cloud: Just pierced bottom of the cloud, and now it appears to be providing support. C clamp on 5 day cloud.
TD’ Sequential: Price flip on 3d. R-5 on daily.
Visible Range: Point of control over last 24h = $7,375 | POC over last 5 days = $7,528 | POC over last month = $7,444 | POC over last year = $8,190
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -5.94% | 24h = -4.94% | 1w = -14.72% | 2w = -5.08% | 1m = +6.9%
Bollinger Bands: Bottom band on daily = $6,791 | MA on 3d = $6,931 | Back below MA on weekly. Bottom band hanging around $5,500.
Trendline: N/A
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Just took out another daily down fractal. Up remains at $8,367. Next down = $6,085
On Balance Volume: If price fell as hard as daily OBV then we would be back at $6,300.
ADX: -DI just crossed above +DI on weekly. Recent cross on daily with ADX > 25 (trending down)
Chaikin Money Flow: Finally created a lower low on daily.
RSI (30 setting): Just crossed below 50 on daily and weekly.
Stoch: Recent sell signal on 3D. Daily re approaching oversold territory. Weekly still looks healthy
Conclusion: Yesterday I expected a fall straight to $6,800 if we broke down $7,250 support and was surprised to see the reversal candles on the 1 hour chart. The 50 day MA and psychological support coming from the round number is the only reason why I can see the price finding support here.
Conversely the daily cloud could provide a short sale entry in the very near future. We briefly pierced the bottom a bearish cloud, and now it appears to be providing support. However be careful here because we do not have a bearish TK' cross (yet) and we are near significant support.
The daily TD' Sequential indicates 4 days left to the downside. If we get a red 9 at $6,800 then a bounce would be highly probable. If not in a position then I would pass on selling a kumo breakdown and wait to sell the bounce from $6,800 - which should take us back to $7,250 - $7,500.
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