Bitcoin: What Proof Do We Need To Become Bearish?

19 เม.ย. 2020

Bitcoin price structure continues to favor a push to higher prices. Although the 7300 level has not yet been cleared, the fact the price continues to flirt with resistance is a sign of strength based on the criteria that we evaluate. UNTIL the market confirms a change in the balance of order flow, we will continue to look for strength. In this video I explain what a confirmed change looks like in order for us to change our expectations from bullish back to range bound.

Key Point:

For the LONG only swing trade strategy that we employ, near term price structure carries meaningful weight. The recent series of higher lows (5700 area, 6500 area) represent strength and point to the greater probability that price pushes to a higher high (8K area). We have been managing a swing trade from 5750 and recently shared a more aggressive idea at 7025. The structure is our guide and we give the market a chance to let the probabilities play out UNLESS the structure changes. The key here is letting the market PROVE itself and not asserting and acting on our own opinions or feelings about what the market should do. That is why we make it very clear that we do NOT react to noise.

The 7300 to 8K zone is a resistance zone where selling activity and a potential reversal are a possibility. And we consider this conflict in light of the bullish structure. At some point the MARKET will choose which way the order flow imbalance will sway. As long as the key support levels of 6425 and 6K stay intact, we maintain our bullish outlook and will NOT be distracted by price noise, or others who tend to over react to information that is much less relevant to our time frame.

Waiting for the market to produce PROOF to confirm an idea is key to an effective process when it comes to timing. Reacting to information instead of WAITING and ANTICIPATING is a sure way to empty your account. A reaction is usually rooted in a fear, either of missing out or of losing money. That type of behavior is what leads to the herd mentality and has little to do with "being informed" or logic.

23 เม.ย. 2020

บันทึกช่วยจำ

This is the chart we shared on 4/14. Reached it's first target today. Patience pays. You don't have to play both sides to produce consistent returns. What price are you long from?