BTC - BREAKOUT OR BULL TRAP ?
DAILY (D1)
Yesterday's price action triggered a second long white candle in a row, which broke on a closing basis (41'505) the upside triangle trigger level @ 41'115 which should, potentially activate the triangle technical target, calling for a move towards 43'400, which is also, by the way, projected in the next days the top of the daily clouds resistance area and therefore should be seen, if reached at a KEY PIVOT LEVEL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
Interesting to note that 43'390 is the 50% Fib ret (48'534 - 35'547) and also the KIJUN-SEN, meaning very important level as previously mentioned.
Nevertheless, following this first upside breakout I would remain cautious and it also could be a BULL TRAP as already seen in the past...
In addition, the current level of the daily top clouds resistance area (41'900) is working as the first obstacle to be broken to confirm this upside move towards 43'400.
On the downside, a failure to hold and close on a daily basis above the triangle trigger level, now @ 41'061 should be seen as the first warning signal of a wrong breakout and would put again the BTC on a neutral mode, roughly in the middlle of the daily clouds.
4 HOURS (H4)
TOP OF THE 4 HOURS CLOUDS is currently working perfectly well, in rejecting four successive upside breakout attempts !!
RSI is losing momentum and began to turn down.
LAGGING LINE is above both TS and KS but did not managed, so far, to enter in the clouds resistance yet...
First support to look at in the 4 hours time frame is @ 41'166 and a closing below that level would increase the risk, calling for further downside towards the 4 hours clouds bottom area, around 40'300 (MBB being @ 40'467 and KS @ 40'150
Globally the psychological 40'000 former resistance level became now the NEW SUPPORT which should not be broken in order to keep going the ongoing upside bias !
1 HOUR (H1)
Short term support @ 41'277 (currently under attack) ahead of 41'166; 38.2% Fib ret of the last rally @ 40'53 , 50% @ 40'158 and 61.8% @ 39'781, this Fibonacci retracement zone match with the hourly clouds support area, which, also, perfectly corroborate the important 40'000 support level previously mentioned in longer time frame.
Have a nice trading day.
IRONMAN8848. - Jean-Pierre Burki
Yesterday's price action triggered a second long white candle in a row, which broke on a closing basis (41'505) the upside triangle trigger level @ 41'115 which should, potentially activate the triangle technical target, calling for a move towards 43'400, which is also, by the way, projected in the next days the top of the daily clouds resistance area and therefore should be seen, if reached at a KEY PIVOT LEVEL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
Interesting to note that 43'390 is the 50% Fib ret (48'534 - 35'547) and also the KIJUN-SEN, meaning very important level as previously mentioned.
Nevertheless, following this first upside breakout I would remain cautious and it also could be a BULL TRAP as already seen in the past...
In addition, the current level of the daily top clouds resistance area (41'900) is working as the first obstacle to be broken to confirm this upside move towards 43'400.
On the downside, a failure to hold and close on a daily basis above the triangle trigger level, now @ 41'061 should be seen as the first warning signal of a wrong breakout and would put again the BTC on a neutral mode, roughly in the middlle of the daily clouds.
4 HOURS (H4)
TOP OF THE 4 HOURS CLOUDS is currently working perfectly well, in rejecting four successive upside breakout attempts !!
RSI is losing momentum and began to turn down.
LAGGING LINE is above both TS and KS but did not managed, so far, to enter in the clouds resistance yet...
First support to look at in the 4 hours time frame is @ 41'166 and a closing below that level would increase the risk, calling for further downside towards the 4 hours clouds bottom area, around 40'300 (MBB being @ 40'467 and KS @ 40'150
Globally the psychological 40'000 former resistance level became now the NEW SUPPORT which should not be broken in order to keep going the ongoing upside bias !
1 HOUR (H1)
Short term support @ 41'277 (currently under attack) ahead of 41'166; 38.2% Fib ret of the last rally @ 40'53 , 50% @ 40'158 and 61.8% @ 39'781, this Fibonacci retracement zone match with the hourly clouds support area, which, also, perfectly corroborate the important 40'000 support level previously mentioned in longer time frame.
Have a nice trading day.
IRONMAN8848. - Jean-Pierre Burki
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