Bitcoin death cross

1 ก.ค.

In 1 year COIN is up 282% and BTC is up 154%. Now what? Everyone knows there's only 3 possibilities. Up, down or sideways. And since we've been going sideways for about 5 months, I'd say we're getting closer to only 2 options now. Up or down.

If I overlay a back tested strategy based on the cross of 20sma and 100sma, it results in 32 Bitcoin trades since 2015 when BTC was trading at 250. The 32nd trade that just printed was a Bitcoin short, when the 20sma crossed under the 100sma on Thursday 6/27/24.

I'm posting this as a Bitcoin short until I see BTC 20sma cross over it's 100sma.

2 ก.ค.

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Stochastic on the 8 week candlestick chart:

4 ก.ค.

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BTC Swing trade idea:
Long = 57k
Stop = 56.5k
Profit = 60k

4 ก.ค.

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The Mt. Gox trustee holds 142k in BTC and 142k BCH. So as these are distributed in pieces in July it will increase selling pressure on BTC and BCH. Going long for a swing trade is risky. That's why I am planning an entry at 57k, with a tight stop loss 56.5k BTC 5 month low and take profit level with 50% retracement between 3 days ago high 63k and today 57k = 60k.
In theory, all other coins should not have this exogenous selling pressure from Mt. Gox distribution. However, the psychology of the rest of the cryptocurrency market is following Bitcoin anyways. Accurate technical analysis on all other coins besides BTC & BCH, could be another idea to swing trade from.

5 ก.ค.

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Trying again
Long 53.5k
Stop 53k

6 ก.ค.

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Take 50% profit at 58k

8 ก.ค.

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51.7k could be another good support

12 ก.ค.

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I'm keeping an eye on sma20 crossing under sma200. Since July 5th sma200 has been acting as resistance for BTC. I input sma365 just to get an average price over the course of 1 year. The last time BTC crossed sma365 was a cross over on March 14th 2023 when it was 24k.

sma20 = 60,075
sma100 = 64,850
sma200 = 58,900
sma365 = 46,664

13 ก.ค.

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BTC 20sma resistance since June 13, 200sma resistance since July 5 & 20sma about to cross under 200sma.

16 ก.ค.

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Take all profit at 65k. Wait for a pullback.

18 ก.ค.

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Bitcoin update:
sma20 = 60,005
sma50 = 63,830
sma100 = 64,390
sma200 = 59,655
ATR resistance = 69,775
ATR support = 50,230

5 ส.ค.

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Long swing trade:
BTC 54k
ETH 2300
SOL 130

5 ส.ค.

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Global market crash

6 ส.ค.

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Bitcoin 3 day chart ATR levels:

6 ส.ค.

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Bitcoin went from 49k yesterday to 57k today. I won't be surprised if it retraces 50% 53k.

7 ส.ค.

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Local 50% fib retracement is 53,403

8 ส.ค.

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The bulls took over from yesterday's 54,564 low. And now we're past the 50% retracement from the past 2 weeks high & low. Bitcoin nearly hit .618 level at 61,997.

9 ส.ค.

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Bitcoin is sitting at it's 2024 fib retracement .618 now: