BTCUSD - shorter term view - up then down?

22 ก.ย. 2020

Hey Trading Ladies and Gents!

It's been a while again since I posted my last idea "Unlock the BTC potential ... When Moon???".

Since that idea is really a long term idea, which, even if I say so myself, is still pretty much spot on, I've decided to give you my thoughts on the shorter term.

We saw a good drop in price yesterday and a lot of people are calling doom again for BTC. However, the only thing we did (for now) is to test the bottom of the candle that started the move out of the last consolidation zone.

The previous time this happened, BTCUSD found support at that level, so my guess is that chances are high we are going to see that again. In general what happens in this type of chart pattern, is that bulls have "conquered" this level and they will be waiting for any price action going below it to buy it up. We saw the exact same thing happen the previous time.

Is that a guarantee? In trading there are no guarantees, and as much as I hate it, BTC price is still much correlated to the general market trend and more particular to the US Stock market (SPX) and USD. So, a lot will depend on how these numbers will evolve, BTC is not (yet) the hedging tool that most crypto adepts would like it to be.

Nevertheless, we did gain an important level in my humble opinion. If you look at my publications from June and April, you will see that I'm talking about that 9.2K key level that needed a break and close above to find support on it. We have broken above that level in July and price has been above it ever since, but it has not been tested as support yet. So, we could see a decline into that price level if stock markets would go down and USD value up.



So I guess that's not much of a prediction after all ... I have said 2 different things: BTC will find support at current levels, and BTC might go down to 9.2K, so what do I actually expect?

I expect BTC to find support at this level as said earlier, and trade within that triangle you see on the chart. Near the end of the triangle, we might see price break down rapidly and test the 9.2K level support, to then continue within that 9.2K - 14K range for some more time, as explained in the analysis I mentioned in the very beginning.

If you have made it till the end of this analysis, congrats and thanks for reading it all. Let me know what you think will happen in the comments below and open the discussion.
If you liked this analysis, you know what to do ;)

Have a great day and thanks for your visit!