2014 vs 2018 bull trap fractal analysis: revised
This is a revision on my previous idea. I have changed resistance line and area on the chart. The top chart time frame is changed to 12h because the custom 16h does not work due to technical issues. That does not matter much for the fractal analysis though
Text in the previous idea:
Hey fellow gamblers!
In my previous idea, I compared Bitcoin crash speed in 2018 against 2014. It was roughly 1.5x faster in 2018. I used this number to choose the time frame for doing fractal "analysis". The top chart is 2018 in 16h TF and the bottom chart is 2014 in 24h (1.5x16h). 2014 fractals are mostly different from 2017-8. But in this case, they look "relatively" similar. Still not the best fractal to compare against, but I have chosen it because they are both formed after breaking out of the down trend channel for the first time. I refer you to the chart to make your own judgment.
I am still 60/40 bearish/bullish and holding 25% of my positions. I have given the probabilities (based on my gut) on whether this rally is a bull trap or not. The higher we go, the probability diminishes (you can follow it up to above 20k on the chart).
As I have clearly declared, I am new to this game and almost illiterate in TA with no experience whatsoever. I strongly advice you to not trade based on this idea.
/ Monkey :D Ruffy
This is the image version of the above chart:
Updated:
Using this chart for time cycles:
Text in the previous idea:
Hey fellow gamblers!
In my previous idea, I compared Bitcoin crash speed in 2018 against 2014. It was roughly 1.5x faster in 2018. I used this number to choose the time frame for doing fractal "analysis". The top chart is 2018 in 16h TF and the bottom chart is 2014 in 24h (1.5x16h). 2014 fractals are mostly different from 2017-8. But in this case, they look "relatively" similar. Still not the best fractal to compare against, but I have chosen it because they are both formed after breaking out of the down trend channel for the first time. I refer you to the chart to make your own judgment.
I am still 60/40 bearish/bullish and holding 25% of my positions. I have given the probabilities (based on my gut) on whether this rally is a bull trap or not. The higher we go, the probability diminishes (you can follow it up to above 20k on the chart).
As I have clearly declared, I am new to this game and almost illiterate in TA with no experience whatsoever. I strongly advice you to not trade based on this idea.
/ Monkey :D Ruffy
This is the image version of the above chart:
Updated:
Using this chart for time cycles:
บันทึก
This is the first draft of the idea:บันทึก
If you look at the price of BTC at other exchanges (black dots: Kraken, Blue dots: coinbase, Poloniex: orange), you will notice that at Kraken and Coinbase BTC price gradually fall behind by about half a percentage. Could this mean that Bitfinex is being used to pump the price and other exchanges for distributing BTC? It is possible but not certain. There is a possible explanation for this, which I will write if you are curious about it.บันทึก
Here is the possible explanation for the curious.Tether price started dropping during this pump. Kraken and Gdax have BTC/USD pairs hence the difference. All the BTC/Tether exchanges remained synced with Bitfinex during the pump. This leads me to the next question, why Tether price dropped during this pump?
บันทึก
บันทึก
1st target reached
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมที่ ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมที่ ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน