Bitcoin: Too Much Time At Resistance Means Strength?

21 เม.ย. 2019

"Bitcoin is a short! It's going back to 3500!!! Go to Bitmex and leverage everything you own right now!". Sound familiar? If you have been on the internet since Bitcoin's first attempt to retrace off the 5400 high, it should sound very familiar. It is the general consensus among the herd. In fact I have seen this sentiment posted on my comment forums regularly. Want more statistical proof? Just take a look at the Bitcoin short interest. And with the recent double top formation, I would not be surprised if this sentiment heightens even further.

I will be the first to say that I do not buy into resistance areas, I prefer to buy into support areas. Since the beginning of April, Bitcoin's short squeeze has pushed the price into a major resistance area that I have been pointing out to our followers countless times. The 5200 to 5800 area is a proportional resistance zone relative to the 6K level. From my perspective, the current resistance increases the likelihood of a retrace of lower levels, BUT that does not mean it will go there. Even with the current double top formation attempting to establish itself.

Here is what you need to realize: Price is lingering at a resistance. Weak markets, even temporarily weak DO NOT LINGER at resistance levels, they sell off quickly. The amount of time that Bitcoin has been fluctuating above 5K is about TWO WEEKS, all while short interest is biased to the high side. Not a good recipe for a short in my opinion. All these leveraged shorts piling in, yet no major supports are breaking. The 4930 to 5K area, is still nicely intact. Obviously the buying pressure continues to absorb the aggressive supply.

This was a very similar situation that we faced at the 4130 resistance area. If another short squeeze takes place (which can happen out of nowhere) price can easily see 6K which presents the next obstacle for this market. The fact that the general consensus is extremely bearish further adds to the argument in favor of higher prices rather than a deep retrace. The crowd is usually wrong (which is the foundation of most forex broker's business models).

In summary, there are NO absolutes in market timing. Good technical analysis presents possibilities and probabilities, not precision. And good perspective comes from considering variables that are not visible on a chart. Without this basic understanding of market mechanics, it is very easy to be conditioned by the irrational sentiment of the herd. Our objective is to detect structural changes around potential turning points in order to get a read on how likely forced order flow is to come next (short squeeze or long liquidations). And at the moment, AS LONG AS price can stay above the 4930 level, the chances of squeezing to 6K are still a reasonable possibility, even in the face of a major resistance zone (yes it is confusing and conflicting, but that is the market).

And with this being the case, I still stick to my plan which is to WAIT for a qualifying structural support. Would I like to see 4500? Sure, but the market does NOT care about what I like. The 4930 to 5K area is the active support area we are watching for a swing trade long, but it all depends on what kind of order flow Bitcoin presents upon a revisit.