X marks the ABC seller exhaustion
ที่อัปเดต:
What do you get when there is complete seller exhaustion and no extra buyers step into the market? Thats right, you get a vertical spike with continued depleted volume. Thats what BTC just showed us.
This post is follow up to my last 2 posts, "WXYXY over Hurst Cycles" and "A Silent Bull in Disguise?" The former give the forest view and the latter gives the microscopic view elliot wave count that proves the 1,2,3,4,5 of A. I have communicated a lot of thoughts in the former that explains why I am expecting wave 5 of A as this chart shows. It explains why wave 4 is restricted to a .236 retrace; however, I have the top of wave 1 at 6340, so that is actually the lowest point wave 4 can retrace to maintain a valid Elliot wave impulse that would make up an A wave in a Bear market.
So why do I think this is an X wave of an WXYXZ pattern? It is because we have seen zero volume confirmation of cycle wave 3! Look at the volume, its still depleting. It is because BTC is still in a triangle pattern seen in the "WXYXY over Hurst Cycles" post. I was thinking it may be possible that BTC is starting cycle wave 3 because Hurst cycles is showing BTC is starting a new 500 day cycle and it would make sense cycle degree wave 3 start on the start of that large cycle, however, the volume is just not confirming that. I am expecting a huge volume spike like BTC has not yet seen. Instead volume continues to deplete even though we just saw a vertical spike. This is indicative of the X wave and the continuation of cycle degree wave 2.
I have Point C at the top of the triangle resistance line at the point where the current 60 day cycle is at its peak. I am estimating the B wave takes twice as long as the C wave because the retrace always takes longer.
This post is follow up to my last 2 posts, "WXYXY over Hurst Cycles" and "A Silent Bull in Disguise?" The former give the forest view and the latter gives the microscopic view elliot wave count that proves the 1,2,3,4,5 of A. I have communicated a lot of thoughts in the former that explains why I am expecting wave 5 of A as this chart shows. It explains why wave 4 is restricted to a .236 retrace; however, I have the top of wave 1 at 6340, so that is actually the lowest point wave 4 can retrace to maintain a valid Elliot wave impulse that would make up an A wave in a Bear market.
So why do I think this is an X wave of an WXYXZ pattern? It is because we have seen zero volume confirmation of cycle wave 3! Look at the volume, its still depleting. It is because BTC is still in a triangle pattern seen in the "WXYXY over Hurst Cycles" post. I was thinking it may be possible that BTC is starting cycle wave 3 because Hurst cycles is showing BTC is starting a new 500 day cycle and it would make sense cycle degree wave 3 start on the start of that large cycle, however, the volume is just not confirming that. I am expecting a huge volume spike like BTC has not yet seen. Instead volume continues to deplete even though we just saw a vertical spike. This is indicative of the X wave and the continuation of cycle degree wave 2.
I have Point C at the top of the triangle resistance line at the point where the current 60 day cycle is at its peak. I am estimating the B wave takes twice as long as the C wave because the retrace always takes longer.
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I am I the car traveling and posting from phone so I can’t show you the subwaves on the image here but... you should see an a b c pattern where c wave is .786 wave a. Wave 5 of c is 1.272 wave 1. Then you see a small spike. That ladies and gentlemen is the start to wave 5. Since wave 3 was less than 1.618 wave 1 we can expect wave 5 will be be biggest. You see my target there at the top of wave A of X on my main post here. I think NO one is predicting this because this impulse has pushed the limits of Elliot wave rules. For example wave 4 overlapped wave 2 a little but wave 5 is still starting here. This spike on the one minute chart has me confident and excited. See my related posts especially my first of this series to see how I first found this impulse.บันทึกช่วยจำ
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I am expecting consolidation here for a while and then a big vertical spike maybe in a few hours from now.บันทึกช่วยจำ
I am thinking we saw wave 1 of 5 of a just now and a huge deep wave 2. Wave 3 is next. I am thinking once it breaks column resistance it will spike to the 3.618 at 6770.
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There was a candlewick that nullified the possibility that wave 5 started. This is still wave 4. It’s a complex correction. I was thinking it would be a simple correction because the space wave 4 has to move is incredibly restricted. It looks like it will move laterally for a while in a wxy or wxyxz pattern in order to extend the time for wave 4.บันทึกช่วยจำ
WXY completing now. Is it done or will go more latterly? We will see.
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the lack of height on wave 5, along with this upward wedge pattern, and the overlapping between waves 2 and 4, make me think this is a bearish abc pattern. The movement above the column would then be a bear wick event. Notice the apex is near 6850 which would be the 100% retrace point for the abc pattern.
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The upward wedge has widened. I think it could keep widening until 8000 apex where we meet the top of the huge 2018 triangle. This chart shows a symmetrical triangle with apex at the .236 retrace. I have wave 2 at the .786 retrace at 6470. The next impulse marked 12356 is wave 3 of higher trend impulse. บันทึกช่วยจำ
The spike further confirms my impulse thoughts. Just came an hour or two earlier than I thought.
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Wave 3 of 3 was only 1.618 wave 1 of 3. Wave 3 will be smaller than wave 1, therefore wave 5 must be the smallest. I am seeing this Elliot wave pattern confirm the larger upward wedge. A lower low is possible and likely.
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The general idea I had here has been correct. It is an X wave that touches the top of the triangle, and it is late July as predicted.
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