BTC pierced above the 7238 USD VPVR level! Will it close above?

ที่อัปเดต:

Bullish Scenario playing out in my Apr 06 post in my previous on-going analysis updates.

Note: as explained in a prior published idea, the current ascending channel is drawn as such base on my personal trading preference to ignore the initial equilibration “ringing” after a massive sudden move. I believe it tends to be wise to wait awhile before a clear new market structure form after the previous market structure has been broken.

Previous stances (posted here):
QUOTE:

(Apr 05) Right now I am actually neutral in the short term, so long as the red 21 EMA holds. I will only be bearish if the green 50 SMA fails to hold.
The PRISM oscillators indicates a bearish bias atm, however the Snap Oscillator and the AJ-ribbon are only gently sloped downwards, which could also mean a relatively sideways movement, with a very slight drop (perhaps to retest the 50 SMA) before rebounding.
Right now, I am actually slightly and cautiously bullish into the longer-term base on the current market trend. But similarly, for me to become truly bullish, the price will need to break up above the yellow ascending channel, and to clear the 7238 USD VPVR resistance as well and retest it as support.
(Apr 06) The fact that the Sell signal have been triggered on the Cyber Ensemble suggests that it will be difficult for the price to successfully break up higher this time round as well. And if that is the case, the price will likely come back down; and may very likely break below the red 21 EMA, as well as the green 50 SMA with the failed attempt by the bulls -- with the immediate bearish price target of 6100 USD at the bottom of the ascending channel drawn, and hopefully closing and supported above the orange 200 SMA. Setting stop-loss at the 6612 USD VPVR level just below the green 50 SMA to lock in profits accumulated so far just in case.
(Apr 06) If the price falls and closes below even the orange 200 SMA, then BTC will likely follow through with a break down below the yellow ascending channel, marking the start of a more significant and perhaps violent downtrend.
However, as per the above latest chart posted, the AJ-Ribbon looks to be in a strong upward swing, which will likely pull momentum back up into the positive.
This is in conjunction with the main P-Oscillator looking to cross the 21 VWMA really soon as well! I'm cautious slightly biased to the bullish case atm now, but will wait and observe which condition is fulfilled before making my next move.
(Apr 06) BTC had now successfully closed above the yellow ascending channel.
Switching to 4hrly chart where the Cyber Ensemble and PRISM Signals indicators have now have better confluence with the price action, indicating a reduction in volatility.
The bullish/bearish scenarios as described above are as shown.

Moving up to the higher 6hrly timeframe: The AEONDRIFT bands (stdev bands -- similar to the well known Bollinger Bands) have drastically narrowed, indicating reduced volatility; and a possible significant move incoming.

6hrly chart (zoomed out):

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SUMMARY:

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CYBER ENSEMBLE sell signal triggered.
Will the support hold?

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Typo in snapshot above. "like" == "line".

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Bull/Bear scenarios.
Expected price levels.

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BTC looking strong.

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However, going down to the lower timeframe, multiple bearish signals now emerging:

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12 Hourly Chart:

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A look at the Daily Chart as well:

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Summary: I am still gonna hold my BTC position for now, but will anticipate for a possible drop if BTC drops back into the yellow ascending channel.
Setting stop-loss at slightly below the RCVI{SL}61.8%dn level @ ~7080 USD.

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Broke out of the sell pressure from the long-term downward trendline on the daily chart, and appears to be finding support so far atm. But the candle have only just opened for the new day. Will see how candle closes, as well as the lower timeframe price actions, to guage the next move, at the end of today.

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4hyly chart: BTC is still trapped within symmetrical triangle after breaking up from yellow as ending channel atm.

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Low timeframe (5mins) look at support and resistance confluence of trendlines drawn.

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Will the locals strong support hold? Or will it drop all the way down to the bottom of the yellow ascending channel?

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Heat map is turned-on on Cyber Ensember In the above chart.

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Imo, looking at the Ichicloud, the sell signals from both PRISM Signals and Cyber Ensemble may already have played out, and price appears to have found support on the green ichicloud for now.

4hrly chart analysis:

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Prism Signals (B)uy signal activated on the 4hrly after BTC returned to retest the top of the strong local support which is also at the 61.8% Fib retrace level.

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Will perhaps wait for Cyber Ensemble to trigger a buy for confirmation.

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Predicted price action playing out, supported by the 61.8% Fib retrace level with confluence with the ichicloud (my own settings -- published with {Cyber Network label). But this is the weekend. Rather have the price continue relatively sideways or even visiting the lower end of the strong support, than pumping up significantly.

Bulls be weary that with the price now ascending upwards over the weekend, that will set up a bear flag patter for further continuation downwards.

Higher timeframe on the PRISM Oscillator Set doesn't look bullish at all.

Something to keep in mind.
I'll continue monitoring the chart and posting updates.

Note: I will not post signal or as I do not offer trading advice, but merely share my analysis on the bearish/bullish views and scenarios and my own bullish/bearish-biases based on my TA edge/strategy, and then allow people to make up their own mind. :)

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Also note above that the price is still being supported by the red daily 21 EMA.

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Adding a bullish perspective: Volume-Oscillator Trend vs. price/momentum trend.

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^^ Forgot to turn off Stochs above in PRISM. But since it is left on, it can be commented too that the pRSI modulated Stochs have reset to the bottom level, increasing likelihood of a rebound.

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Longer term PRISM Oscillators Set analysis (i.e. 1mth and above) on the daily chart:

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Blue Cyber Ensemble Buy Signal Triggered on the 4hrly, providing further confirmation -- after the Green PRISM SIgnals' Buy Signal was Triggered on the 10th Apr '20.

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PRISM Oscillators Set Analysis:

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Some bearish signs on the 3hrly though.

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Slow down from the present upward trend, likely going sideways supported by the green 50 SMA or retracing back down to the 200 SMA, before a possible continuation upward (since 4hrly is looking bullish still).

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Came back down to revisit the thick orange 200 SMA as predicted. The thin orange line is the 200 VWMA.

PRISM Oscillators still looking bearish and Need to wait for CYBER ENSEMBLE and PRISM Signals to signal a buy again before I'd feel safe to re-enter the market with my exited Trading stash again.

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Another Bearish consideration:

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3hrly paints the same picture in the PRISM Oscillators:

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Not panicking though. Setting stop-limits (@ ~6500 USD) accordingly in the anticipated event that the head and shoulder pattern plays out.
Snap-Oscillator on the daily now looking bullish actually, but pRSI-modulated STOCHs is still overbought and needs to reset. At the very best, we revisit the bottom of the yellow ascending channel once again but yet not break it to the frustration of the bulls for a possible rebound against the widely bearish expectations.

Zooming out on the Daily, it still look like a bear-flag setup:

For the longer term bulls simply "HODLing" with strong-hands for BTC fundamental potentials, falling back down to 5k USD level to flush out the toxins (weak-hands who FOMOed in, and with more $$$ than they can afford to lose, thinking that they will get rich in the short term) and setting up a higher-low going into the BTC halving event will be a lot more healthier.
Interesting views about digitization of central banks manipulated Fiat "currencies", vs. decentralized BTC (hard "money").
youtube.com/watch?v=YtAvhsDVoK4

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Some bullish signs emerging?
Note: The bearish signs presented above remains valid.

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3 hourly Chart Analysis:

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Although the bearish-divergence have clearly already played out, the head and shoulder pattern presented a few charts above is concerning for the bulls.

BTC currently can make highly correlated moves wrt to the SPX, especially whenever SPX makes a significant move; hence it is relevant to analyse the SPX as well, and look at things from that perspective.

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SPX normalized chart.
Doesn't look as bearish as the actual chart. No head-and-shoulders.

SPX Chart not looking bullish on the short-mid term at all.

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RSI/STOCHs on the weekly chart looking bullish.
RSI have reset to historical bottom.
STOCHs looks to be reversing up.

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Further Zoomed out weekly RSI/STOCHs

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Summary: Conflicted signals atm. Will not trade, but will adopt a wait and see stance instead.
I'm overall slightly more bearish biased.

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Waiting to see if this will play out.

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See also head-and-shoulders pattern posted above.

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Note: Need to discern between the sort/mid/long-term analysis posted above.
The bearish-view relates to the longer timeframe and remains valid unless BTC breaks above the earlier stated 7238 USD level and successfully holds for at least daily candles. Another more aggressive strategy when that happen would be to look at the PRISM and MACRS oscillators once the price manages to break up above, and then set up cost-averaging stop-limits buy ins roughly 5% above. But that is nowhere in sight atm.

As for bearish trade setup, I will wait for BTC to plunge below the yellow ascending channel and gets reject, or alternatively refer to my PRISM/MACRs oscillators and act accordingly, similar to the bullish scenario.

Right now, I'm just sitting on the sidelines waiting for clearer signals to emerge again.

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Side ultralow timeframe XTZ:BTC trade with a tiny % of my HODLing BTC pool to accumulate more BTC after the BTC pump -- waiting for 61.8% Fib level retest.
All depends on BTC chart though.

WIll sell all XTZ back into my "HODLing" BTC stash the moment a sell signal on BTCUSD triggers on the 3 hourly on CYBER ENSEMBLE.
tradingview.com/chart/6HNn0TjD/

BTC appears to have reached to have reached a local top now though. Doubtful that it will successfully break out higher. Mid-Long term, I am still bearish atm until the Bullish-criteria discussed above is met.

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BUY signal on CYBER ENSEMBLE triggered again on the ultralow 1min timeframe. Bought back in with the exited pool again.
Updating stoploss as per the criteria described above.

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BTC chart above not posted properly.
RE: (Quote) "BTC appears to have reached to have reached a local top now though. Doubtful that it will successfully break out higher. Mid-Long term, I am still bearish atm until the Bullish-criteria discussed above is met."

Here it is:

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Latest XTZ chart, selling at least 50% back to BTC again if it hits the 100% Fib level again. This is since I'm still bearish biased on BTC, and do not believe BTC will be able to break out higher.
Ok to miss *some* opportunity of further pump -- don't want to risk losing BTC.

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Won't be updating on my 1min timeframe side XTZ:BTC trades. Bascially will just continue following my CYBER ENSEMBLE signals, Fib level analysis and interaction with MA levels, as will as PRISM Oscillators Set (not shown).

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CYBER ENSEMBLE triggered a Sell, latest stoploss at 78.6% Fib level triggered and I'm all out. Won't be buying in again as I am now anticipating BTC to retrace lower.

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Now back to BTCUSD chart analysis:

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BTC starting to look increasingly bullish now.

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