ลดลง

BTC: SHORT

โดย zerocashcool

ที่อัปเดต:

Weekly Heikin Ashi MACD & RSI Bearish Divergence. Short.
Target: $51,000

บันทึกช่วยจำ

No volume from buyers here means dead cross.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Daily DeMark 9/13 Sell Setup:

บันทึกช่วยจำ

See the rest of traders will be buying at these levels trying to make money on bounces in the 5-6% profit range per bounce. I wish I were such a great trader. Instead of fucking around, this is 20.56% profit with no sweat. It's really the way to go.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

My hypothesis of how this will play out based on my Weekly analysis, portrayed on this 4H chart is like so: TD Sequential TDST support will fail. Phi³ EMA 305 will fail as higher MAs continue to Dead Cross. The price fall to 23.60% will be too early to provide for buyers as all buyers hoping for ATH breakout have failed in their attempts, as confirmed by this downward move. Reminder: Weekly MACD & RSI bearish divergence on BTC Heikin Ashi chart was the signal immediately preceding this falling. Also reminder: This happened on Daily TD Sequential 9/13 Sell Setup. Continuing, 23.60% fib will not have buyers, falling to Phi³ 610 EMA will not have significant buy volume with again, continually Dead Crossing MA's above. Finally, as I believe, Weekly MA and Fib support is found in the $51,000 area, above 50K psychological "bargain" level.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

And just to be clear, I'm not giving a long recommendation at $51,000. That's where I'm repaying my short trade.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Buy Order changed to $54,500. Daily TDST and EMA 610 line up here perfectly. Additionally, see that TDST on 4H will be broken now.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

I claim that the bull cycle has ended and the first real, solid support is at Weekly EMA 72: $38,550. I've circled three points where the divergence indicator gave a solid entry/exit. The latest one which preceded this down move happened exactly after Heikin Ashi showed the divergence - I have alerts set on these events. For those, like myself, who would rather wait for Weeks and Months to get in one solid entry which you can ride hundreds of % profit over weeks and months, $38,550 is the entry area. Weekly EMA 72. I've been at this for a few years and have been glued to my screen, trading through the night, tormented by TradingView alerts, sleep deprived, trading minute candles. I've done it all. Truly, I would claim that a vast majority of people would make more money making one or two, a few good trades a year than messing around. Food for thought. For those who would ask, it's called "Divergence for many indicators v4".

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Look at Monthly bearish divergence at 6 months Pivots R2. Right now it's a Shooting Star confirming prior resistance, at Weekly TDST.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

38,850 doesn't look absurd at all if you look at Pivots. Many/Most people who trade Pivots only use 2 targets. The second was hit on 6 MONTH Pivots. This isn't Daily. This is half a year Pivots. And if you notice the first time it hit R2 it closed a Doji, setting horizontal resistance at the high, and as of now the pattern is a Bearish Engulfing Pattern on this image. On the Monthly it's currently a Shooting Star.

ปิดการเทรด ด้วยตนเอง

Short closed.

Strongly considering opening a long based on the Daily chart. Observe prior support at EMA 55 (yellow line). The Doji represents that the market may be "tired" of falling. This does not mean that the market will make a bullish reversal. It could well move sideways. Taken in combination with its pullback from Monthly Pivots target R1 to above P, its position exactly at the high of Ichimoku demand, the candlestick at Bollinger Band low, and Stochastics at the border of the oversold zone. This was a 15% pullback from 6 Months Pivot R2. I would say that the first upside target would be Bollinger Band upper at $67,280.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Looking at 90m (since there's 90 minutes left to a new Daily) I see a 9/13 Buy opportunity. Weiss Wave looks like the bearish wave may be over. Bullish divergences on multiple indicators. Higher lows.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่

Back to short. Not bullish enough for my taste.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

When you look to Bollinger Band lower to potentially be acting as support on a Doji/~Hammer close and the next candle shows no buyers but many sellers - that's not support.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

I've moved my short stop way higher. I am not going to get stopped out on this bearish shit show. Steve Nison's favorite indicator is ADX. Look at this Weekly chart. No bullish. Just candles. Look at the Indicator on the bottom. ADX (yellow) trend strength has changed direction; it's rising again. -DI and +DI are going to cross. Bulls are done for and Stochastics prove this. This is it.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Pardon me for using this as I have not studied EW Theory proper but nonetheless, LonesomeTheBlue is an insanely talented programmer and created an indicator for identifying the start of Wave 3. 12H chart. 191 Days from left to right Wave 3.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

In the white boxes I'm trying to illustrate that under bullish conditions, RSI would break out above the center line and the ideal entry would on a pullback to center. In this case what we see are failed bullish attempts which will lead to new lows.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

ปิดการเทรด ด้วยตนเอง

I just noticed a strange difference between INDEX:BTCUSD and BINANCE:BTCUSDT on 4H. BINANCE is about to flip to a 7 Buy Setup while INDEX is about to flip to a 9 Sell Setup. Super weird. This is also above TDST potential support. I've closed my short.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

I meant that INDEX is about to flip to a 9 Buy Setup.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

BNBUSDT - Potential Short Opportunity

บันทึกช่วยจำ

BNB's bullish wave was 2X higher than ETH's, which was higher than BTC's. The odds of a more profitable short on the BNB pair makes sense to me.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

I didn't realize the interest rate on BNB short is 0.3% per hour. That's insane. I've moved my short to BTCUSD.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

WARNING. YESTERDAY'S DAILY DID NOT CLOSE AS A BULLISH REVERSAL CANDLESTICK SIGNAL. I BELIEVE P MAY BE LOST TODAY.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

ETHUSDT - Possible Short Entry

บันทึกช่วยจำ

LonesomeTheBlue has an EW Wave 3 script. Look at 12H. I think we're in a wave 3 bearish trend. The down wave so far has hit Target 1.0 and 1.618 (small blue horizontals). 2.618 is next at $49,000. Look at RSI(5) and MACD. Rejection here will mean "we tried. we failed. farewell." Then fast selling. I think this is how this will play out today. Check out the arrows in the lower panes.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Same here on Daily. "We really tried our best." Look at the bounce on Monthly Pivot P. That's not a bullish candlestick reversal pattern. There is no support here. Look at the indicators. MAMA is red. Beyond that SPECIFICALLY, look at Stochastic, MACD, and CCI. Why is the bullish effort so weak compared with the movement of the Indicators out of the oversold zone?

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Bearish Divergences - Monthly

บันทึกช่วยจำ

This has me excited. Weekly chart. 6M Pivots P with EMA 72 as support. I truly think this is what will happen.

ปิดการเทรด ด้วยตนเอง

บันทึกช่วยจำ

switched to long.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

A good 5% up to 0.618.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

With EMA 9/20/50 and some other magic I'm getting the impression that the high of this move will be $67,300. I think the 9 will cross the 50.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

OCO with take profit at 67,300, stop at 58,500 and limit and 58,000.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Not looking good for bulls:

บันทึกช่วยจำ

4H Renko(10)

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Target range:
$52,750 - $51,200

บันทึกช่วยจำ

zerocashcool

คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ

ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมที่ ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน