Tuesday update - Bitcoin

3 ม.ค. 2023

Welcome back, I hope that everyone had a wonderful New Year's Eve!

• Bitcoin is still trapped inside the bearish diagonal
  
  
• Below the important resistance @ 18'391 our bearish scenario remains
  

As you may have noticed, from now on we publish new content on bitcoin and ethereum every Tuesday and Thursday.
In the last update I gave a detailed insight into our bearish count in bitcoin and since last week this count didn't change very much. Mainly because the trading volume was very low, and the price is still trapped inside the bearish diagonal.

If bitcoin doesn't break out of this diagonal the chances are pretty good that the upcoming days will deliver lower prices and with the breach of the last low @ 16'261$ we would have a first confirmation that the downtrend will pick up on volume.
To calm nervous investors down, we do have a bullish count in bitcoin that features a possible "break-out" scenario, but as longs as we stay below the marked green line @ 18'3981$ it doesn't have a big chance of playing out.

Below you can see our 1D chart which was the main picture of the last analysis, I decided to give everyone here a more "short-term" view in the 8H timeframe above...

At the end, both important levels are marked, and I will update you guys next Thursday.



If you should have any questions about this analysis, feel free to leave a comment or reach out directly to me.

5 ม.ค. 2023

บันทึก

Thursday Update:

In the last days, the market couldn't build up enough volume to push the price down.
Like in ethereum, bitcoin broke out of the bearish diagonal and tried to reach price levels above the last high of wave (a).

Since then bitcoin failed in gaining further momentum and as you can see on the chart, the volume is already declining, the chances are pretty high that bitcoin will "re-enter" the diagonal.
The wave structure of the past weeks gives me reason to believe that we are in a-b-c correction in the yellow wave (ii).
After completion of wave (ii) we should see harsh selloff in order to establish bearish wave (iii).

Important: As long as bitcoin stays below the resistance @ 18391.0$ we can't expect any bullish reversal whatsoever.