Bitcoin: A realistic scenario.
So, here we are, after 4 months, bitcoin is back on the 30k area, but this time it's not after a 10x bull movement, but after a 50% correction. So the question we all thought about was:
Is this scary?
Short answer: No.
I expect this cycle to choose between 2 posibilities.
1. We hit 300k in this year (IMO the least likely scenario).
2. We hit 100k in Q4 2021 - Q1 2022.
Why i think this cycle will last longer? Im not the first to say this, but if you look at the past, bitcoin cycles tend to be longer than past cycles. Following this theory, (which so far has not been proven wrong at least), i expect actual bitcoin price to be a consolidation phase, maybe even a few months. Key months i should say, as we were going too fast, and so far we had not seen any major correction since the cycle started. Corrections are necessary, healthy, and nothing to worry about. If you are scared about a correction, take a step back and look at the big picture.
I strongly don't believe we are experiencing the start of a bear market, and i dont expect 65k to be the cycle top.
Last 50% correction happened in march 2020, and it was followed by a 2000% run. So i have my head clear, and take this scenario like a challenge. It's HODL or death at this point.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
As it's clear in the graphic, the RSI last few months showed a bearish divergence (higher prices with lower strenght each time). The price showed a lot of respect to this divergence, as it hasn't been broke yet. In my opinion, we will test it again, maybe soon (300k this year) or after a few months of consolidation (100k this year), the later the most chances of breaking it we have.
So,time is on our side.
If we test it and got rejected (most likely to happen if we test it soon) i expect a fall back to the 30k area (25k zone like the worst scenario).
Im not financial advisor, but IMO selling now is a bad choice. I will hold and buy more if price goes lower.
Have a good day and let me know your thoughts.
Is this scary?
Short answer: No.
I expect this cycle to choose between 2 posibilities.
1. We hit 300k in this year (IMO the least likely scenario).
2. We hit 100k in Q4 2021 - Q1 2022.
Why i think this cycle will last longer? Im not the first to say this, but if you look at the past, bitcoin cycles tend to be longer than past cycles. Following this theory, (which so far has not been proven wrong at least), i expect actual bitcoin price to be a consolidation phase, maybe even a few months. Key months i should say, as we were going too fast, and so far we had not seen any major correction since the cycle started. Corrections are necessary, healthy, and nothing to worry about. If you are scared about a correction, take a step back and look at the big picture.
I strongly don't believe we are experiencing the start of a bear market, and i dont expect 65k to be the cycle top.
Last 50% correction happened in march 2020, and it was followed by a 2000% run. So i have my head clear, and take this scenario like a challenge. It's HODL or death at this point.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
As it's clear in the graphic, the RSI last few months showed a bearish divergence (higher prices with lower strenght each time). The price showed a lot of respect to this divergence, as it hasn't been broke yet. In my opinion, we will test it again, maybe soon (300k this year) or after a few months of consolidation (100k this year), the later the most chances of breaking it we have.
So,time is on our side.
If we test it and got rejected (most likely to happen if we test it soon) i expect a fall back to the 30k area (25k zone like the worst scenario).
Im not financial advisor, but IMO selling now is a bad choice. I will hold and buy more if price goes lower.
Have a good day and let me know your thoughts.
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