Bitcoin: 34K Break Means New Long?

4 ก.ค. 2021

New aggressive buy signal off of 34K break now in play (sent Friday). What makes the idea compelling is the improved reward/risk which can be defined by the 32K area. IF the renewed bullish momentum can follow through, a test of the high 30K's is within reason for the coming week.

Not much has changed in terms of the broader Bitcoin price structure. The 30K AREA still holds as support and 41K holds as resistance. Everything in between is part of the highly random nature of a consolidation. While a lower low is still favored by the overall structure, (30K break?), that does not mean price will automatically agree.

Things can change fast. As a market timer our job is to 1) measure the risk and 2) adjust to new information. If a signal that is favored by a broader structure fails to follow through, that is a new piece of information to consider.

In the case of Bitcoin, 41K is the lower high that has been in play for a number of weeks, but a significant lower low has yet to follow. This can considered an early sign of strength and IF it leads to compromising 41K instead, that would tell us the bearish structure is no longer in play, and the broader BULLISH trend is reasserting itself.

Before you watch a dozen videos about "Bitcoin 80K" though, it is important to realize that even if 41K is cleared, the 50K area is a major resistance that can keep Bitcoin within the broader Wave 4 corrective consolidation that I have been talking about for MONTHS. While blind optimism needs to be kept in check, we are still open to longs, but with REALISTIC profit expectations for the time frame that we operate within.

Confused by this slow and highly random environment? Here are some things that can help: 1) focus on the broader structures and larger time frames. 2) consider what the market is NOT doing, and 3) AVOID the FEAR of missing out. There are ALWAYS more opportunities in a financial market, you just have to be patient. (For the entire month of June we had only 3 Bitcoin buy signals.).

Thank you for taking the time to consider my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.