High probability of a Bitcoin ATH this year

15 เม.ย. 2018

So if you look at my history, I posted one other chart (SiaCoin) and it was hilariously wrong. While currently at a great profit from that post, it was bad timing since I posted it right as the altcoin bear market started. So in short, I am clearly a shit trader... and I don't call myself a trader. Where I excel at, is looking at the long-term and understanding the big picture. So yes, I am a holder, and holdin aint as easy as it sounds. It requires the choice of *no action* in an environment full of action. But once you understand the big picture, and see that growth is inevitable at this point, it becomes a lot easier. With a market so erratically unpredictable, I think the best way to win is to take long-term positions, especially during times of fear, and just be patient.. let bitcoin do the rest. I have already witnessed three bitcoin bubbles, and it has made me rich, insanely rich, and I'm looking forward to the next one (again, inevitable). It is impossible to avoid these hype cycles during price discovery of a brand new asset class. At a 140B market cap (bitcoin), for a globally accepted and increasingly legitimized asset, we still have ways to go. The benefit of Bitcoin is, if you are bullish about crypto at all Bitcoin is your plug into the market. As the backbone of the entire ecosystem it will rise with the rest of the market by default. It still remains one of the "safest" bets in crypto, though its history, proven resilience, unparalleled development, battle tested security, increasing network, institutionalization, and public confidence. If you have been around in 2014 you might remember the flood of retards with their "forget Bitcoin, it's all about the blockchain!" narrative, they will come and go once again as more people realize that Bitcoin IS the best application of blockchain and the only blockchain that is truly out of anyone's control. It is possible that we might see a black-swan event, like a major bug in the protocol, that will take bitcoin back... however, as years go by that scenario becomes less likely. This is why history is important in establishing trust and confidence, bitcoin's got 10 years of it. This experiment will take time to mature so for now, let's assume that Bitcoin isn't going away, and another bull-cycle is only a matter of time.

How long until the next bull run? I am very confident it will happen this year.


Interesting twitter post by perma-bulltard Tommy Lee:

Now:

pbs.twimg.com/media/Da1NvAQVQAUuU-C.jpg

2013 bubble:

pbs.twimg.com/media/Da1NHlSVQAAsoBZ.jpg

After the 2013 bubble, it took 405 days for Bitcoin to completely reverse 1 month of bullish momentum (621% gain from Oct '13->Nov '13).

On this bubble we already reversed 1 month of gains prior to the 2017 peak in 55 days.

We are moving a lot faster compared to the last bear market, and that should be obvious from how fast and brutal the Feb 2018 dump was.To be fair, the post-2013 bear market took us all the way back to ~$200 which was the prior ATH, which I think is the ultimate bottom of a bitcoin bear market. But shit was scary back then, most people weren't even sure if bitcoin would survive. Now it's more like "lets just get the bear market over with and go to 100K already"... the overall environment and public perception is much better. Dropping back to prior ATH ($1200) would be a 95% decline, and honestly, I don't think bitcoin deserves that at this stage. There are too many confident buyers who would buy it up before it gets there.

I was pretty certain we were heading to 4K with this bear market, but now I'm not sure. Either way, we're inching close to an actual reversal point, even if the price dips again. At times like this, and as always, my priority is to acquire/hold as much bitcoin as possible. ATH this year would align with how long it takes for the average bitcoin bubble to burst and recover:

i.imgur.com/sP8b91A.png


There is also a chance that this could end up as a re-

15 เม.ย. 2018

บันทึก

CONTINUED.....


There is also a chance that this could end up as a re-set and continuation of the year long rally-- noted by the pitchfork above--if that happens we're gonna see some crazy shit this year.

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Good thread:

twitter.com/MustStopMurad/status/985335772562776065

11/When (not if) some Asian central bank or a large sovereign wealth fund announces they put 5% of their reserves into a basket of blue-chip cryptocurrencies, the world will never the same again.

12/ Bitcoin is a profound Economic Rennaisance, falsely wrapped in a Tech Bubble, itself falsely wrapped in a Get-Rich-Quick Scheme. The complete takeover success of cryptocurrencies is inevitable destiny. It is mathematically inescapable. Once you see this, you can't unsee it.

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Good reads that I highly recommend:

medium.com/@mcasey0827/speculative-bitcoin-adoption-price-theory-2eed48ecf7da


runtogold.com/the-great-bitcoin-bull-market-of-2017/


medium.com/@vijayboyapati/the-bullish-case-for-bitcoin-6ecc8bdecc1