Good Friday morning, traders. We saw another attempt by the market to push price up and through the $6450-$6650 resistance but the sell walls were dropped in when it did. Ultimately, we saw a high of $6562 this morning with a sharp sell off immediately afterward that led to a low of $6405. The high was at the dashed horizontal resistance line that we've had in place for over a week now. Looking at the 1H chart, we can see price generally moving between the descending dotted line and horizontal blue line with some wicks up. We are watching for a break and close above that blue line. Shorts to longs ratio has dropped to 1.15 with the overnight movement as we are seeing longs increase and shorts decrease which we pointed out was likely a few days back. A short squeeze would require strong movement up sooner rather than later, without the sell walls dropping in and limiting momentum, otherwise we may see shorts unwind.
Daily RSI continues to rise, currently sitting at 43, and MACD has curled up and is nearing the signal line for a bullish cross. The latter has continued printing higher lows and highs since the corrective low in February with the most recent high being just about even with the previous one, suggesting we are seeing bullish pressure building up toward the resistance. This could be seen as a precursor to a bull market, but we will need to re-evaluate it in terms of price action once we get to that point in order to confirm it as being so. Taking a look at that daily chart shows us six days of long wicks and minimal candle bodies with price hovering around the median of the channel formed by the August 14th low and August 15th high. The current daily candle is looking much stronger, however we still have just over 10 hours remaining before it closes during which time anything can happen, especially since we are transitioning into the weekend which is usually marked with lower volume. However, a breach and close above $6630 would go a long way toward supporting the bullish hope. At this time, price remains above the S1 pivot. The daily pivot sits at $7435 and a breach of that would be a bullish signal as well.
On other TFs, the 4H RSI is consolidating toward resistance at 60 and a breach would suggest upward momentum as OBV continues to rise. The 3D printed a large-wicked, small-bodied indecision candle which doesn't help much with analysis, however the current RSI is pressuring the resistance at 42. If broken, we should watch for a target of 53 as the next resistance. OBV continues to rise on that TF as well.
Overall, volume has increased since the beginning of the July run which is generally a bullish signal after a corrective cycle consolidation. We should also note that price may be forming a double bottom as denoted by the blue arrows. Price needs to breach the $8500 high to confirm this pattern, but if it does, then we should be looking at a price target of $11,100-$11,200. This would give us the first true higher high and low sequence this year, further supporting a bull market narrative. But we have to see if price follows through and prints that first higher high before the potential double bottom is even relevant. None of this, in any way, guarantees anything bullish or otherwise. These are the things we are watching as potential clues to understanding the market's current condition. As always, the supports are noted in case price fails to hold this current level.
We will be looking at various TFs during today's live streams as we attempt to decipher price action into the weekend. While TV does not allow me to advertise where we live stream, I am sure you will have no trouble finding us and I look forward to seeing you join into the chat. Thank you for taking a look at our analysis and be sure to hit the thumbs up.
Daily RSI continues to rise, currently sitting at 43, and MACD has curled up and is nearing the signal line for a bullish cross. The latter has continued printing higher lows and highs since the corrective low in February with the most recent high being just about even with the previous one, suggesting we are seeing bullish pressure building up toward the resistance. This could be seen as a precursor to a bull market, but we will need to re-evaluate it in terms of price action once we get to that point in order to confirm it as being so. Taking a look at that daily chart shows us six days of long wicks and minimal candle bodies with price hovering around the median of the channel formed by the August 14th low and August 15th high. The current daily candle is looking much stronger, however we still have just over 10 hours remaining before it closes during which time anything can happen, especially since we are transitioning into the weekend which is usually marked with lower volume. However, a breach and close above $6630 would go a long way toward supporting the bullish hope. At this time, price remains above the S1 pivot. The daily pivot sits at $7435 and a breach of that would be a bullish signal as well.
On other TFs, the 4H RSI is consolidating toward resistance at 60 and a breach would suggest upward momentum as OBV continues to rise. The 3D printed a large-wicked, small-bodied indecision candle which doesn't help much with analysis, however the current RSI is pressuring the resistance at 42. If broken, we should watch for a target of 53 as the next resistance. OBV continues to rise on that TF as well.
Overall, volume has increased since the beginning of the July run which is generally a bullish signal after a corrective cycle consolidation. We should also note that price may be forming a double bottom as denoted by the blue arrows. Price needs to breach the $8500 high to confirm this pattern, but if it does, then we should be looking at a price target of $11,100-$11,200. This would give us the first true higher high and low sequence this year, further supporting a bull market narrative. But we have to see if price follows through and prints that first higher high before the potential double bottom is even relevant. None of this, in any way, guarantees anything bullish or otherwise. These are the things we are watching as potential clues to understanding the market's current condition. As always, the supports are noted in case price fails to hold this current level.
We will be looking at various TFs during today's live streams as we attempt to decipher price action into the weekend. While TV does not allow me to advertise where we live stream, I am sure you will have no trouble finding us and I look forward to seeing you join into the chat. Thank you for taking a look at our analysis and be sure to hit the thumbs up.
