Bitcoin Daily Update (day 273)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.


Previous analysis: Expecting 1-4 month bounce due to the TD Sequential on the 31d chart, along with short term trends turning bullish
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 | Long LTCBTC from 0.00812

Patterns: Peter Brandt labeled this in i h&s and I can’t say I disagree. 4h symmetrical triangle. The 1h c&h from yesterday’s post failed to confirm. Now it looks like it could be forming a down trend
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $4.046 & $3,875 | R: $4,181
BTCUSDSHORTS: Shooting star at resistance + close below 4 MA
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0715%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Closed below and trending down
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Close above and trending up
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Trending down at $5,239
Overall trend: Clear no trade zone for me due to short and medium trends disagreeing
Volume: Continues to decrease as we consolidate
FIB’s: (Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $4,056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909
Candlestick analysis: Bearish doji
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily Tenken-Sen & Kijun-Sen are hovering right around the 33 MA | 4h continues to hold as support
TD’ Sequential: Daily r2 = r1
Visible Range: Testing high volume node from $4,000 - $4,600 and finding resistance
Price action: 24h = -3.94%
Bollinger Bands: MA is coming down fast. Now it’s at $4,486
Trendline: Higher lows on the daily could be the start of new trendline
Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Bearish
Parabolic SAR: $3,546
RSI: Failed to get oversold on the weekly
Stochastic: Bullish recross
Last Day Rule: Waiting to trade above $4,384 for trigger day

Summary: It is starting to look more and more like we will pullback for a retest of $3,750. The higher volume that we saw in the area last time along with the daily parabolic SAR lead me to believe that we will double bottom before bouncing, something like what was outlined in day 270.

I like the risk reward of a long in that area. Profit target would be the 33 MA, which is expected to be around $5,000. Stop loss would be slightly under the parabolic SAR at $3,524 for a 5.53:1 reward to risk ratio.

It is entirely possible that we continue to fall from here without getting a bounce, however I do not like the risk:reward on a short at these levels and I am going to pass on the sell signals in hopes to re open ~33% > the current prices.