BTC/USD daily coiled like a rattlesnake
Overview: The daily chart looks far more troubled than the weekly, but it's an important perspective, so let's dig in.
TA: Curves do what lines do, only better.
This TA demonstrates just how tight we're coiling, and in my view, we have a 5k drop to the 54k area to test the bottom curve before we even begin to entertain a substantial drop into the 40s (I don't think 50k would hold if we retested that area).
To the upside, we have less room to go before breaking out. I think a break and hold on the daily above 61,500 would put us off to the races. The volatility, along with the volume, has dropped to extremely low levels, despite minor shakeouts over the weekend. Until the volume picks up, there's always an increased chance that fakeouts occur. The MACD isn't giving us much since everything has slowed to a near standstill, so I'm not relying much on what I see there. The RSI is diverging with the price, as it has been for weeks now, and that is a bearish development that just won't go away, so we have to keep that in mind. The volume is anemic, and that is another reason to be cautious.
Fundamentals: Still bullish here. NUPL on glassnode shows we have loads of room to the upside, and every macro fundamental model you look at other than the Pi cycle is bullish, so it's hard to ignore the bullishness, even at these levels. There is a healthy mix of retail and institutional level buying going on, but we have some unknowns on the horizon with the Coinbase listing, and the futures premium cash/carry trade in play, so this should be an exciting week.
Final Thoughts: Still hard not to be bullish, but also hard not to be skeptical of such an overcrowded trade. Struggling to think of more names to get in that would push us through this next price level, but also struggling to think of bearish announcements that the market hasn't already considered. The list is short on each side, and the price action is illustrating that sentiment in the market.
My Call: We digest a couple more low-volume, fakeout-shakeouts, and surge to the upside almost undeterred until somewhere post 70k. I put the bearish scenario at 30%, which isn't nothing, but doesn't scare me - yet.
Manage risk and have fun. Good luck!
TA: Curves do what lines do, only better.
This TA demonstrates just how tight we're coiling, and in my view, we have a 5k drop to the 54k area to test the bottom curve before we even begin to entertain a substantial drop into the 40s (I don't think 50k would hold if we retested that area).
To the upside, we have less room to go before breaking out. I think a break and hold on the daily above 61,500 would put us off to the races. The volatility, along with the volume, has dropped to extremely low levels, despite minor shakeouts over the weekend. Until the volume picks up, there's always an increased chance that fakeouts occur. The MACD isn't giving us much since everything has slowed to a near standstill, so I'm not relying much on what I see there. The RSI is diverging with the price, as it has been for weeks now, and that is a bearish development that just won't go away, so we have to keep that in mind. The volume is anemic, and that is another reason to be cautious.
Fundamentals: Still bullish here. NUPL on glassnode shows we have loads of room to the upside, and every macro fundamental model you look at other than the Pi cycle is bullish, so it's hard to ignore the bullishness, even at these levels. There is a healthy mix of retail and institutional level buying going on, but we have some unknowns on the horizon with the Coinbase listing, and the futures premium cash/carry trade in play, so this should be an exciting week.
Final Thoughts: Still hard not to be bullish, but also hard not to be skeptical of such an overcrowded trade. Struggling to think of more names to get in that would push us through this next price level, but also struggling to think of bearish announcements that the market hasn't already considered. The list is short on each side, and the price action is illustrating that sentiment in the market.
My Call: We digest a couple more low-volume, fakeout-shakeouts, and surge to the upside almost undeterred until somewhere post 70k. I put the bearish scenario at 30%, which isn't nothing, but doesn't scare me - yet.
Manage risk and have fun. Good luck!
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